135 
FXUS64 KMEG 070209
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
909 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

The split flow pattern over the western CONUS has transitioned to
a Rex Block along the West Coast with a persistent trough over the
east. One shortwave trough is digging southeast across the Upper
Midwest with a secondary vorticity maxima traversing the northern
High Plains. Another wave is lifting northeast into New England
with quasi-zonal flow aloft over the Mid-South. Some high-level
moisture is streaming across the Southern Plains and may result in
some thin cirrus overnight. Otherwise, expect another mostly 
clear and dry night. 

A cold front is moving through the region at this time. The
initial front extends roughly from Clarksdale, MS, to 
Clarksville, TN. This will account for little more than a wind 
shift and only marginally lower dewpoints. A slightly stronger 
front is located farther north along the I-70 corridor from Kansas
City, to St Louis, to near Indianapolis. This front will bring 
more dry and cooler air into the region late tonight and Friday. 
The main impacts from this system will low RH which will 
contribute to fire danger and the potential for frost in some 
areas this weekend, mainly Sunday morning. Stay tuned for more on 
the cooler temperatures.

MJ

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

A cold front is beginning to push its way through the Mid-South,
and will continue its trek south throughout the evening and
overnight hours. Unfortunately, rain chances will not increase
with this frontal passage, but do expect drier air and cooler 
temperatures for Friday through the weekend.

An upper level trough will deepen over the Great Lakes Region this
weekend before pushing eastward out of the region by Monday. As a
result, temperatures over the weekend will remain cool with highs
Saturday in the upper 60s to low 70s. There is concern for frost
development early Sunday morning for portions of northwest
Tennessee due to forecasted temperatures in the upper 30s. 
Otherwise, expect the weekend to remain dry with high 
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. By Monday, the upper air pattern 
will change to a upper level ridge. In addition, winds will begin 
to switch to a southerly direction, advecting higher moisture 
values back into the region. As a result, expect temperatures to 
start gradually increasing Monday, with highs near 80. As the week
continues, temperatures will gradually warm and relative humidity
values will increase. 

Thankfully, the increase in humidity and temperature will not 
last long as another trough moves into the Great Lakes Region 
Thursday, bringing another cold front to the Mid-South. PWAT 
values ahead of the front will be around 1.5. This combined with 
the front moving into the region will result in an increase in 
rain chances across the region. For now, guidances suggest regions
in northwest Tennessee and northern Mississippi will see the 
highest rain totals. However, models suggest the highest totals to
be around 0.25 inch, so impacts from this rain event will remain 
low. Behind the front, temperatures will cool and dry air will 
filter in by the weekend, making for another great weekend in the 
Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2022

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds will
become light by 03z then increase to 8 to 10 kts by this evening.

SWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...SWB