693 
FXUS66 KMFR 070039
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
539 PM PDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Updated AVIATION

.DISCUSSION...With upper level ridging in place over southern
Oregon and far northern California, there will be little day -to-
day changes in the forecast, with no significant changes likely 
to occur until early next week. For inland areas, expect dry, 
mostly clear weather with daytime temperatures of 10 to 15 
degrees above normal for early October, along with more seasonable
overnight lows. Areas along the coast will see near to slightly 
above normal temperatures, with marine layer pushes producing 
overnight into morning clouds and fog. 

There have been several changes during the extended period over
the lats several forecast cycles, as models have had some
difficulty finding consensus regarding the behavior of an upper
level trough that may arrive in the area early next week. Most
ensemble members show the trough riding over the West Coast ridge
and digging south into California as a cut-off low by Tuesday.
This scenario is one that is likely to produce dry east winds
Monday night into Wednesday or Thursday morning. A few members do
produce some shower activity within the area as the low passes, 
or takes up station just to our south, but the bulk of solutions, 
along with historical trends, suggest that the low will take up 
position too far south, and that moisture from the source regions 
will be too scarce, to produce any significant rainfall chances. 
Depending on the specific track of the low, temperatures may cool
slightly for a day or so, but overall, no major cooling or 
warming trend away from current conditions is expected through the
end of the forecast term. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...IFR/LIFR marine stratus will continue to 
impact the coastal waters and most of the coast, including North 
Bend, through the next 24 hours. We expect low ceilings and fog to 
also develop in the Umpqua Basin, including Roseburg tonight (around 
10z), and then last through late Friday morning/early afternoon 
(around 21z). Elsewhere inland, expect VFR to prevail through the 
next 24 hours. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Thursday, 5 October 2022...North winds will 
diminish this evening. A thermal trough will re develop Friday into 
Saturday and with north winds increasing. However, the models 
consensus shows winds should remain below small craft during this 
time. There could be brief periods during this time where wind gusts 
could exceed small craft, especially south of Cape Blanco and beyond 
10 nm from shore, except north of Gold Beach where it will be closer 
to shore. Given that were only expecting brief periods where wind 
gusts could reach small craft, we'll hold off on any headline for 
now. The thermal trough is expected to weaken again on Sunday, then 
north winds are expected to increase by the start of next week with 
small craft conditions possible by Monday afternoon south of Cape 
Blanco. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.

&&

$$