753 FXUS61 KOKX 070025 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 825 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the south will yield to a cold frontal passage Friday evening. High pressure will then build to the south this weekend. A weak front will move across on Monday, followed by strong high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal system may begin to approach on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... GOES-16 IR sat and MRMS RALA show clouds and and spotty showers associated with the advancing shortwave trough aloft a little slower to advance, so adjusted forecast to take chance PoP out of Orange County before 06Z. Beyond that, maintained slight chance PoP, aligned with the 15Z SREF data. With mostly clear skies ahead of the wave, along with residual ground moisture and a cooling boundary layer, some patchy fog is possible, especially across outlying areas. For temperatures, the 12Z MAV/MET were blended in with NBM to bring lows down slightly. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A cold front approaches for late Friday and Friday evening. The system is moisture starved, so probabilities remain in the slight chance range. Most of the time period is dry, except near the front. However, there is a signal for some post-frontal pcpn late Friday night with the jet providing support. Favored areas are near the coasts with this. Still not much moisture to work with, so any amounts are expected to be light. Despite some mid and high cloud potential on Friday, will still call it mostly sunny based on the NBM output for now. The NBM was used for temperatures Friday, with some blending in of the MET and MAV used for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Although a cold front will be well to the SE by this time, an upper trough to the west will have yet to pass through, with an approaching mid level vort max and right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. This could result in some morning sprinkles for Long Island if not farther north/west. As the trough weakens/shears out, a mostly sunny afternoon expected, with high temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s, about 5-10 degrees below average. Temps Sat night should be on the cool side as well, with 40s in most places closer to the coast, and mid/upper 30s across the interior and eastern Long Island. The pattern aloft will feature a longwave trough over eastern North America through at least Monday, with sfc high pressure sliding to the south. As the trough moves east for a short time going into mid next week, a weak, moisture-starved sfc front will move across Mon night. Can't rule out showers north of the forecast area where better mid level trough dynamics are likely to be present. Our forecast should remain dry, while daytime temps also should moderate to near normal during this time frame. Heights rise aloft during mid week while sfc high pressure from the Great Lakes strengthens while moving into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. As a result high temps should rise to a few degrees above normal by Wed/Thu, with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. An amplifying closed low over central Canada should send a cold front toward the area late in the week, with current timing of any chance PoP at the very end of the forecast period (Thu night). && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure builds offshore through tonight. A cold front will approach on Friday and pass through during the afternoon into early evening. VFR. A brief sprinkle can not be ruled after 06Z at KSWF. Low chance for patchy fog outside the NYC terminals toward daybreak Friday. Winds will be light and variable for most terminals overnight, but a general light SW can be expected. KJFK will see light S wind shifting to the SW overnight. SW winds will continue into Friday morning, 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 15-20kt develop ahead of the cold front in the afternoon and continue in the NW flow following the cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening. Gusts will end after 03Z Saturday, though there is some uncertainty with the end time. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday nigh through Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt. .Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt. .Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Despite a cold frontal passage Fri evening, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels. That said, gusts over 20 in NW flow are likely on the ocean Sat night, and again in W flow Sunday afternoon/evening as seas build to just over 4 ft in a more favorable wind fetch, so either time frame may have to be watched for possible brief SCA conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological impacts expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS.../BG NEAR TERM...BG/ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...JP MARINE...BG/ HYDROLOGY...BG /