606 FXUS61 KRLX 020749 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 349 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will continue through this evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for the start of the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 345 AM Sunday... Updated PoP grids to reflect current radar obs. As of 230 AM Sunday... The mid-level low pressure center from Ian has been stalled over SW VA which models suggested would earlier last week. The low appears to wobble over VA for the majority of Sunday before taking off eastward by Monday. A secondary advancement of energy is being picked up by models that could cause some moisture and low clouds to return on Monday. We will stay socked in on Sunday with rain and low clouds. May see brief clearing on Sunday night and Monday but waves of showers and passing low clouds are possible through Monday afternoon. Rain will start to shut off from west to east by the early evening hours of Sunday. Clouds will start to erode in the same pattern and time frame as well. High temps for Sunday will be in the 60's for the lowlands with 50's and 40's in the mountains. Monday will be drier with some passing clouds as the remnants of Ian move out. Clouds will be lingering in the mountains and places further south. Warmer with highs in the upper 60's for the lowlands. Lower 60's and upper 50's for the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Showers on the western flank of Ian's leftovers will be wrapping up along the mountains Monday morning as the center of circulation departs for the Mid-Atlantic and the eastern seaboard. Surface high pressure settles down into the Central Appalachians and Carolinas for Tuesday into midweek with minimal potential for showers. Clearing behind the post-tropical system will set up the return of frost in the sheltered valleys of northeast WV beginning Monday evening under northwesterly flow ushering in cool, fall- like temperatures. Otherwise, daytime highs will resemble normal readings for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Dry weather opens up for the long term period in response to nearby high pressure. A cold front approaches the area by late in the work week. Model trends have been holding steady with the idea that showers will graze the northern portions of the forecast area while the southern half remains drier. Behind the front, a strong Canadian high drops down from the north and takes residence over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This feature will impose dry and crisp weather for the start of next weekend. Overnight lows tumble down into the 30s for areas along the higher terrain, which coupled with sufficient radiational cooling will likely result in frost in our sheltered valleys of Pocahontas and Randolph Counties. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 AM Sunday... Current observations: BKW and CRW are in LIFR. CKB, HTS, and EKN are in IFR. PKB is MVFR. Expecting these rules to continue at all sites and start to drop into IFR or LIFR territory this morning. Most sites will start to rise by ~15Z, especially sites further west like HTS and PKB. BKW will stay in IFR for most of the day but should start getting above IFR after ~18Z as the precipitation and cloud cover starts to dissipate. Low clouds will raise Sunday evening but will return early Monday morning as more moisture may move in. This will hinder fog formation Monday morning. Winds will be predominately N and light for this TAF period. No fog is expected this TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of IFR/LIFR conditions may vary from forecast. Fog may form Monday morning if any unpredicted clearing takes place. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/02/22 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H L H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H L H M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in valley fog each morning after Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/GW NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...LTC