024 FXUS64 KBRO 010546 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1246 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 Light east winds have allowed for dew points to creep up keeping temperatures elevated and weakening the radiational cooling process. Have bumped up overnight lows a good 4 to 6 degrees. Some field fog is not out of the question a hour or so either side of sunrise but not expecting widespread visibility impacts. Any fog that may form should dissipate 60 to 90 minutes after sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Mid-level ridging and high pressure will keep halcyon conditions in play through the short term. Beach runup and elevated rip current risk will persist a bit longer, through tonight, and there is a coastal flood advisory and a rip current statement in effect, but the rest of the weekend should present good to ideal beach weather. Skies will remain mostly clear with light winds. Daytime temperatures will run close to normal, with overnight lows still a bit under normal due to good radiational cooling and the prevailing dry airmass. Enjoy! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Overall, weather conditions for the first week of October still appear to be quite comfortable. Morning low and afternoon high temperatures are expected to run near to slightly below normal values, with dewpoints holding generally in the mid-60s F for the Brownsville/Lower RGV and lower during the afternoons, especially farther inland. Modest ridging, both surface and aloft, should hold for Sunday, allowing for a continuation of the warm, sunny, and pleasant weather from the short-term. Some subtle changes may creep in by Monday, as Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Orlene is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Sinaloa state in Mexico. This may allow for an increase in moisture, mainly of mid- and high-level variety, heading toward mid-week. Still rather uncertain if remnant moisture associate with Orlene will have any effects on our weather beyond that. General trends in modeling have it raining out most of its moisture over the interior plateau of Mexico, while also becoming quite sheared. There is some indication that the mid-level center of Orlene may phase in with another short-wave gliding by farther to the north. At any rate, for Monday, even though it appears that some deeper moisture may try to approach the Rio Grande, it will be fighting against surface riding over Texas, so expecting dry conditions to continue. In subsequent days, flow aloft gradually veers more SW as troughing develops over the Four Corners region. So, while moisture may lurk not far to our south, will not introduce any mentionable rain chances for our CWA until Thursday, when a cold front may work its way into central or south-central Texas. Even then, will cap at slight chance wording through next Friday for now, given the uncertainty. At the beach, given climatology and persistent (if not particularly strong) easterly/onshore flow, will have to keep an eye on minor coastal flooding, especially through next Tuesday when the background astronomical tide amplitudes are relatively high. Coastal Flood Statements may be needed at times, especially in the hours surrounding high tide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022 VFR conditions prevail tonight through Saturaday. Light east winds tonight becoming northeast Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 (Now through Saturday night) High pressure will build over the Gulf waters this weekend with light to moderate east winds and low to moderate seas. Wave periods of 8 to 9 seconds will persist another 24 hours, but shorter period waves will start to develop after that. (Sunday through Thursday) Minimal marine concerns, with light-to-moderate onshore flow of 6-12 knots and seas around only 2 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 66 88 70 89 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 63 87 68 88 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 62 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 83 76 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451- 454-455. High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...59-GB LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...59-GB