877 
FXUS65 KFGZ 262121
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
221 PM MST Mon Sep 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure centered over the southern Rocky
Mountains will help to deliver moisture to northern Arizona, with
thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast. Chances will 
continue, though shift toward central and western Arizona, through
the week. Warm daytime temperatures will continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure in the mid levels was centered over
Colorado during the afternoon. Over the coming days the high 
center will slowly sink southward to a position over New Mexico 
and the Texas Panhandle. The flow around the high will produce a 
southeast to south flow across Arizona helping to deliver 
increasing moisture to the area. The result will be a chance of 
thunderstorms through at least Thursday. Later in the week a low 
pressure system make it's way across the western states. As this 
low and associated upward motion interacts with moisture an even 
better chance of showers and thunderstorms may be in store.

For the remainder of today and tonight...Any showers and storms
will be focused over the high terrain from about Flagstaff north
and east. Activity will linger into the evening but is expected 
to end by midnight. Otherwise, overnight lows will be a bit warmer
due to the increase in moisture with weak pressure gradients for 
light winds.

From Tuesday into Thursday...As the high shifts over New Mexico
and Texas drier air will push over eastern Arizona with the
moisture plume shifting westward. The result will be a decent shot
at afternoon the evening thunderstorms along and west of a line
extending from Payson to Page. East of this line moisture will
become limited for isolated activity. 

Starting Friday and over the weekend...A low pressure system moves
across the west. The GFS brings in a stronger system with a good
shot at widespread showers and thunderstorms as a cold front and 
upward motion max sweeps across the area Saturday into Sunday. 
The best chances would be from the Mogollon Rim northward. 
However the ECMWF has a weaker further north system. The forecast
currently takes the middle ground, holding a slight chance of 
showers through the period.


&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Expect mainly VFR conditions 
with light winds through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through Monday evening, 
primarily along and east of a KFLG-KSEZ-KPAN line and as far north 
as KRQE. Gusty, erratic winds and limited visibility are possible in 
and around any storms. Expect calm conditions overnight. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are forecasted Tuesday afternoon for all 
of northern Arizona. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect warm daytime temperatures with east-
southeasterly afternoon breezes through Wednesday. Chances for 
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White 
Mountains Monday spread north and west to the Grand Canyon country 
Tuesday and linger there Wednesday. 

Thursday through Saturday...Chances for rain decrease and 
temperatures stay seasonable. Expect light west-southwesterly 
afternoon breezes.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...BAJ
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff