261 FXUS64 KAMA 251129 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 For today, slightly cooler temperatures are in store for the OK and TX Panhandles in the wake of the most recent weak cold frontal passage. Surface high pressure will build into the region today and will result in an increase in north to northeast winds this morning into early this afternoon, becoming gusty at times given the progged pressure gradient associated with the surface high. Based on the above, have raised surface winds a little over the NBM 90th percentile values across the higher terrain of the western, southwestern, and south central counties closer to the MAVMOS and LAVMOS guidance values. Winds will diminish areawide during the mid to late afternoon hours as the pressure gradient relaxes. For Monday, the surface high pressure will move off to the east of the area, allowing weak return southerly flow to commence. At upper levels, an amplified ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West coupled with a deepening trof across the eastern states will result in dry northwest flow today through Monday night. Short range models are in agreement with the overall upper level and surface patterns and were accepted. NBM pops and temperatures fit the above scenario and were incorporated into the grids today through Monday night. 02 && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Overview: The long term remains uneventful as we are looking at seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. We may see breezy wind speeds (15-25mph) towards the end of the forecast, and currently Thursday will have the strongest speeds where much of the northwest half could see 20-25 mph sustained speeds. Otherwise, it doesn't look like too much cloud cover through this stretch. Further Details: By Tuesday, broad cyclonic flow will be noted over the eastern CONUS, while the Panhandles will be under high pressure aloft. This H5 high will become more centered over the area as the week progresses. We will start to see some change in the upper level pattern as Tropical Storm Ian makes its way over the eastern CONUS. That said, pattern overall is unfavorable for us to see any precipitation at this time. In fact, we may not have too much cloud cover overall on most days through the extended forecast. On Thursday, as the TS Ian comes onshore, the pattern aloft may become more zonal and cross barrier to the Rockies. Models are indicating a lee low could form over eastern parts of Colorado resulting in a strong pressure gradient over the northwest third to half of the forecast area. This may lead to breezy sustained winds around 25 mph. Guerrero && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 For the 12Z TAFs, north to northeast winds will increase and become gusty at times this morning into the early afternoon hours before diminishing late this afternoon as surface high pressure builds southward into the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KGUY, KDHT, and KAMA through 12Z Monday. 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 83 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 82 51 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 78 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 85 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 83 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 84 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 85 55 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 80 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 81 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 85 53 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 83 52 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 83 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 86 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 89 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...02