279 FXUS64 KHGX 201724 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Summer-like conditions can be expected today as a mid to upper level ridge lingers over Eastern Texas. 500mb heights within the ridge reach 594 dam with 850mb temperatures sitting around the 18-20C range. This will work to bring above normal temperatures, reminiscent of the summer, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s inland and mid to lower 90s along the coast. Subsidence from the ridge and dry conditions will largely suppress rain chances today. A few isolated showers could develop in areas south of I-10 and west of I-45, where PWATS peak around 1.5-1.6 inches. Though, any showers that do develop should taper off late in the afternoon as a surface high over the Lower Mississippi Valley drifts into our area. The aforementioned mid to upper level ridge will drift west towards Central Texas on Wednesday. Increasing subsidence from the ridge and diminishing moisture will bring clear skies during the day. This, in turn, will improve diurnal heating, allowing for highs to increase by a degree or two. Highs on Wednesday should be in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas with a few locations threatening to break triple digits. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 The hot and dry weather pattern will persist in the Thursday-Friday time period with near record high temperatures possible as mid/upper level ridging across Texas remains in control. Highs both days are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s mainly to the south of the Interstate 10 corridor and upper 90s to low 100s to the north of the corridor (Thursday and Friday high temperature records are listed in the Climate section below). Falling heights and a break in the ridge over the weekend will allow area highs to cool down just a tad, and look for readings closer to a low 90s near the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland range. The break in the ridge should allow for a return of possible shower and thunderstorm development, but that return is expected to hold off until Sunday. Some rain chances will remain in the forecast into Monday ahead of a cold front that should be moving through the area. If this developing pattern holds true (mid/upper level ridge out west and a trough out east) and the front does sweep on through, we might actually be talking about comfortably cool nights (lows in the 60s for almost all inland spots on Monday night and especially on Tuesday night). 42 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Light and variable wind will transition to the SE this afternoon around 5-8 knots. With mostly clear skies and light/variable wind overnight, areas of fog will be possible at some terminals. Have included 6SM BR for this package, but lower visibility could be included in future TAFs, mainly for SGR and LBX sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. 05 && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 With high pressure in control, mainly light and variable winds along with low seas and dry weather can be expected through the period. The next best chance of rain does not arrive until Sunday. 42 && .CLIMATE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2022 Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday and Friday. CLL: Thu - 102 set in 2005 Fri - 101 set in 1893 IAH: Thu - 100 set in 2005 Fri - 96 set in 1993 HOU: Thu - 99 set in 2005 Fri - 96 set in 2005 GLS: Thu - 95 set in 2005 Fri - 93 set in 1998 PSX: Thu - 100 set in 2005 Fri - 98 set in 2005 42/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 98 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 90 80 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...05