932 FXUS61 KRLX 180811 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 411 AM EDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent high pressure keeps the area under dry and warm conditions for one more day. Patchy morning fog improves several hours after sunrise. Next front arrives late tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Sunday... A few mid level clouds have drifted overhead as the predominant ridge slowly breaks down. Quiet weather conditions round out our weekend as the pattern slowly shifts. Nearly zonal flow aloft begins to stream in clouds from the west this evening across southern Ohio counties. Expect clouds to overspread the region tonight which should limit patchy valley fog development to the mountains. Temperatures will be very similar to yesterday; perhaps a degree or two cooler as heights begin to fall. Overnight temperatures are expected to be mild as southwesterly flow pumps a moist warm air mass ahead of an approaching front from the west. Lows will be in the lower 60s across the low lands and in the mid to upper 50s along the mountains. Tonight a front across the plains moves to southeastern Ohio, bringing light rain and isolated thunderstorms. A storm or two may become strong with the main threat from gusty wind. The timing for the arrival of the front is expected after midnight, however a few prefrontal showers are possible as the upper wave pattern activates. Rainfall amounts with this system will be relatively light with averages less than one tenth of an inch. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Sunday... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be in the process of spreading into the area for the start of the work week. The culprit behind the return of precipitation will be from a cold front that will lay along the northern fringes of the forecast area through at least Tuesday. Modest instability will be present Monday afternoon and evening for a few rumbles of thunder, but best dynamics are progged to remain west of the Ohio River. Dry weather returns for a fleeting moment on Tuesday as upper level troughing departs to the east and relinquishes the influence of the surface cold front. A slight warming trend ensues on Tuesday, with afternoon readings anticipated to be a few degrees above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM Sunday... Another push of showers and storms enter in for the second half of Wednesday along a stronger cold front. Showers may linger into Thursday, but coverage gradually diminishes from west to east as the front progresses eastward. Robust high pressure nudges the front southward by the end of the work week with drier weather returning once more. After one last splash of summer temperatures on Wednesday, cooler weather triumphs for the end of the period once the front completes its passage and cold air advection transpires along post-frontal northwest flow. Global consensus varies for the weekend outlook, but opted for a drier solution initially, followed by a slight chance for showers at the end of the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM Sunday... LIFR/IFR conditions are expected to develop across much of the area early this morning. There is some limitations for patchy dense fog when compared to previous mornings weather pattern, as the flow just off the surface is southwesterly (instead of north) and the inversions are not as steep. VFR returns for all locations after 14Z with patchy fog possibly redeveloping along the northeast mountains late tonight. Did not include mention on this package as there is high uncertainty in fog formation as mid level clouds begin to stream across from the west. Winds will generally be light and variable with south to southwesterly flow during the afternoon as the gradient tightens ahead of the approaching low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and placement of fog may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 09/18/22 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M L M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M M M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H L M L H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Valley fog possible Monday morning, mainly along the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH/MEK NEAR TERM...KH SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...KH