074 
FXUS63 KFGF 151935
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
235 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

We continue to see isolated showers and storms across the area this 
afternoon and this looks to continue throughout the rest of today 
and into tomorrow. A frontal boundary is draped across the forecast 
area helping to ignite these showers and isolated storms. Guidance 
continues to show through HREF and HRRR showers and storm 
development throughout the evening hours along this frontal 
boundary. Moisture through the 850mb level continues to push into 
the region helping to bring high PWAT values. Instability is rather 
weak around 500 J/kg and shear is <25kts. We don't expect any severe 
thunderstorm development, but a stray stronger storm at times can't 
be ruled out especially along and east of the front. 

Areas in NW MN and into northern MN could see some locally heavy 
rainfall at times, as atmospheric soundings in those region have 
saturation through the upper levels and higher instability. Flash 
flooding is not a concern as the ground has been dry for several 
months and should be able to absorb additional rainfall. QPF totals 
through today and into the early portion of the weekend will vary 
across the forecast area. Areas toward Lake of the Woods and 
Beltrami could see up to 2 inches which is a 30-40% chance of 
occuring, whiles areas into the valley have a chance of 40-50% of 
seeing up to 0.75 inches. These rain chances will be isolated to 
scattered and not widespread. Temperatures are expected to be on the 
cooler side behind the front, with lows tonight dropping to the 
upper 40s near the Cando and Langdon area and lower 60s ahead of the 
front in Ottertail county. Continued rain will help keep 
temperatures cooler tomorrow, with highs only in the 50s in NE ND 
and the low to mid 60s in west central and NW MN. Impacts are 
possible from any stronger storms that develop or locally heavy 
rainfall in NW and northern MN. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Saturday through Thursday: The models and cluster analysis show an 
upper low digging into the western seaboard throwing our region into 
an upper ridging pattern for the early half of next week. There are 
some transient shortwaves to accompany this weather pattern. This 
may lead to an increase in instability ahead of the next wave that 
is progged to travel through the upper flow pattern late Monday into 
Tuesday. There is significant disagreement on the location and 
timing of this wave within ensemble guidance at this time, however, 
leading to lower confidence in precipitation potential. The 850mb 
dewpoints suggest sufficient moisture between 8-12C over our area 
Sunday through Tuesday. Some light rain showers are possible within 
this time period. NBM has a 20-30% of showers (not exceeding 0.25 
inches) for the Red River Valley and NW Minnesota area Monday and 
Tuesday. Wednesday looks to be the end of the rainy pattern as we 
enter a dry northerly flow. The high temperatures are expected to be 
in the high 60's over the weekend but temperatures will warm back up 
into the 70's starting Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

A frontal boundary is draped across eastern ND and NW MN bringing
a low stratus deck behind it. Ceilings drop below 1000feet along 
and behind the front. Its already affecting the GFK, DVL, and TVF 
sites this afternoon and reaches FAR near 04z and BJI by 06z. It 
looks to hang around the area throughout the TAF period. VCSH and 
VCTS will be possible for all TAF sites as moisture plumes from 
the Gulf of Mexico help trigger showers and isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Wind shifts are expected along the 
frontal passage and affect the BJI last near the end of the TAF 
period. IFR conditions are expected along and behind the front, 
while VFR is expected ahead of the front. 


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Spender
LONG TERM...Spender/MM
AVIATION...Spender