702 FXUS63 KLMK 151412 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1012 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2022 Satellite imagery this morning depicted areas of patchy fog which have largely dissipated at this hour with the exception of a few areas along the Ohio, Cumberland, and Rolling Fork River. These isolated pockets of fog will mix out over the next hour with sunny skies expected for all for the remainder of the day today. With high pressure dominating regional weather conditions, expect clear skies, light easterly winds, and temperatures warming into the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon with dewpoint temperatures remaining comfortable in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The forecast is on track at this hour, will update T/Td/Wind grids to incorporate latest observations. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2022 This morning, upper ridging and surface high pressure are producing clear skies over the Lower Ohio Valley, and with calm winds and an inversion in place, radiative cooling is causing fog to form in river valleys across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Expect patchy fog to continue to develop across the area, but since the last few days have been dry, not expected widespread dense fog. After the sun rises and winds start to increase, fog will quickly begin to dissipate, leaving skies sunny. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s which is near normal for this time of year. Tonight, as the surface high slides southeast over the eastern Great Lakes, light winds over the CWA will begin veering slightly from the east to the southeast. Another night of strong radiative cooling will drop temperatures into the upper 50s for most with a few seeing the mid 50s and low 60s. Patchy fog is expected, but to a lesser extend than this morning. .Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Sep 15 2022 Friday - Sunday... Surface high pressure sprawling across the eastern and southeastern United States along with atmospheric water content near or slightly below normal will result in dry and warm weather through the weekend. Afternoon highs will generally be in the 80s, though as we dry out we could start to see some places reach 90 by Sunday. Went on the warm side of the guidance envelope in the forecast. Monday... Sunday night a 5H shortwave moving over the upper Great Lakes is expected to spark showers and storms around WI/LM. This convection will then drop to the SSE, weakening as it goes. While at this time it is not expected to reach southern Indiana or central Kentucky, it may generate outflow boundaries or differential heating boundaries that new convection might spark along as the atmosphere diurnally destabilizes. Models do indicate sufficient moisture, deep layer shear, and lapse rates to support showers/storms. For now, after chatting with neighbors, will include a very small chance of isolated storms in southern Indiana where there's the most confidence (albeit still fairly low). Tuesday-Wednesday... Dry and very warm weather is expected once again as a stout upper ridge asserts itself over the middle of the country. Went on the warm side of guidance with most folks seeing 90 on Tuesday and lower 90s on Wednesday...readings made even more likely if we do stay dry on Monday. High temperatures in the lower 90s would still be below record highs for the 20th and 21st, which are in the 96-100 degree range. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2022 Over the next few hours, a few area TAF sites will continue seeing visibilities bounce due to shallow pockets of fog. Many observations throughout central Kentucky and southern Indiana have visibilities over 6 miles, so don't believe dense fog is a concern this morning at any area TAF sites. Once the fog clears shortly after sunrise, skies will remain sunny through the rest of the day. East winds will remain light around 5 to 7 knots. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...CSG Short Term...KDW Long Term...13 Aviation...KDW