396 FXUS63 KDDC 150440 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1140 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Midlevel high pressure ridge axis was centered near the lower Mississippi valley at midday. SWly midlevel flow had established as a result, spreading a broken canopy of cirrus over SW KS. 12z NAM deepens a leeside cyclone down to 997 mb in western Nebraska this afternoon, and south winds will continue to increase with gusts of 30-35 mph. Cirrus may mute wind magnitudes a bit, but still the strongest winds we have seen in a while with the return of lee troughing. Weak shortwave over NE New Mexico at midday will track northeast into SW KS at peak heating, acting as a trigger for isolated convection along the surface lee trough after 4 pm. Coverage will favor areas west of US 83, with limited pops of 20-30% sufficient. SPC introduced marginal 5% wind probability for the Morton county vicinity, but several CAM solutions suggest most of the activity may be focused in the OK/TX panhandles. Some storms may produce strong outflow wind gusts of 50-55 mph, and some storms may survive toward US 283 before dissipating this evening. Breezy south winds will remain elevated tonight, holding temperatures well above normal in the 60s sunrise Thursday. With another low level jet and moisture advection, there may be some showers around overnight, but coverage and QPF will be limited. NAM solutions are most robust keeping some activity going overnight. Strong south winds will continue Thursday, averaging 20-30 mph, especially across the eastern/central zones most distant from the lee trough/dryline. A relatively better opportunity for scattered convection is expected Thursday afternoon, as another shortwave interacts with convergence along the surface trough/dryline. Models have been consistent on coverage being highest over the central CWA, and pops in the scattered category (30-40%) were retained. Given modest instability (CAPE up to 2000 J/kg) and decent forcing for ascent, confident on scattered thunderstorm development Thursday, but also confident not everybody will see rain. A well mixed boundary layer and high cloud bases will support a primary risk of strong outflow winds, and SPC's marginal 5% wind probability is warranted. Limited vertical shear will result in multicellular modes. Extra cloud cover will help hold afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 The heat begins rebuilding Friday with sunshine and breezy south winds. About 5C of warming at 850 mb will allow for low to mid 90s to return Friday afternoon, with a few more degrees tacked on Saturday. An MCS (mesoscale convective system) appears probable over Nebraska late Friday/early Saturday; some of this activity may clip the I-70 corridor early Saturday as NBM suggests, but the majority of SW KS will remain dry. Starting Sunday, a strong midlevel anticyclone is forecast to start building over Texas/Oklahoma. This high will strengthen and expand its subsident influence across the central and southern plains Monday and Tuesday. A string of three unseasonably hot afternoons will result, with triple digits expected with the assistance of dry ground, the upper high and downslope SWly winds. Along with WFO Wichita and other neighbors, loaded higher percentiles of the NBM for the max temperatures for those days. This gave a forecast of 100-102, but maxes near 105-106 are certainly plausible at the hottest locales and where downslope compression is maximized. Record highs are likely, as supported by ECMWF EFI and GFS ensembles. The extended 3 day stretch of excessive heat will add to the cumulative heat stress on livestock, pets and outdoor workers. Some good news is we are still expecting a cold front to arrive around Wednesday, that will knock down the heat. The bad news is 12z ECMWF and ensembles are trending toward a dry frontal passage, and the drought will drag on next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022 VFR conditions for the entirety of the period for all TAF sites. South winds around 10kts with some mid level clouds overnight. After 15Z, mixing to the surface from daytime heating will increase south winds to 25-30kt gusts along with some high clouds visible through the early afternoon. After 18-22Z, expect thunderstorm development near GCK and HYS pushing east to DDC but confidence low on exact locations, so carrying VCTS at this time during that period. LBL should be south of any activity, with lower ceilings around 5kft with the storms and cumulus clouds. After 03Z and sunset, expect radiational cooling to diminish winds to 10kts with few to scattered high clouds in the wake of the thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 65 91 62 93 / 10 40 30 0 GCK 64 91 59 91 / 20 40 20 0 EHA 60 91 60 92 / 30 20 10 10 LBL 62 91 62 93 / 20 40 20 10 HYS 67 91 61 88 / 10 40 50 0 P28 66 91 63 93 / 10 30 30 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Lowe