310 FXUS61 KRLX 131748 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded low exits northeast of the area tonight. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging bring dry and, on average, seasonable weather through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 147 PM Tuesday... Surface high pressure builds strong over the OH Valley and WV through the period and beyond. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure will keep moving slowly east northeast. Mid level clouds associated with the later system will begin to dissipate by sunset. Northwesterly boundary layer flow about 15 knots, and near calm flow at the surface will allow to dense fog development mainly along the river valleys. However, the aforementioned upper low could still bring some cloudiness to prevent fog development to become dense.Any fog that manage to develop will dissipate by 8 AM Wednesday morning. Central guidance points to near normal temperatures for tonight with lows in the mid 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s highest elevations. Highs on Wednesday will range from up to 80 degrees lowlands, to the lower 60s higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 AM Tuesday... Wednesday dawns with crisp, Fall-like temperatures ranging from upper 40s in the highest elevations to 50s for the rest of the area. Dry weather is expected during the day as surface high pressure takes control and an upper level ridge begins sliding in from the west. The day should be rather pleasant, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures topping out just shy of normal in the afternoon. Highs are projected to reach upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, and low 60s to 70s along the higher elevations. Overnight temperatures will lower into the upper 40s to mid 50s, and river valley fog is likely to develop. High pressure and upper ridging will then maintain dry weather through the end of the short term period. After another cool morning, temperatures warm to around normal on Thursday. Highs should be a few degrees warmer than the previous day as a warming trend begins, then cool and foggy conditions return for Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 255 AM Tuesday... A tranquil weather pattern with upper ridging and surface high pressure is expected to persist through Saturday. Models indicate more zonal flow begins as the ridge flattens out overhead on Sunday, then ridging redevelops early in the work week. All in all, dry weather and plenty of sunshine is generally expected each day from Friday into early next week. While a very gradual warming trend is likely to continue, high temperatures should max out only slightly above normal during the long term period. Clear skies each night are expected to result in fog formation in the river valleys from late night into the early morning hours. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 141 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions will prevail at least through midnight. An occluded low pressure system will continue moving slowly east tonight. Mid-level clouds, rotating around the low's center, could remain over the area precluding dense fog formations. However, surface high pressure builds strong across the region providing dry conditions. Dense fog will likely develop over areas that clear, and along the most protected river valleys, producing periods of IFR/LIFR conditions. Any fog will gradually dissipates by 8 or 9 AM, leading to widespread VFR conditions on Wednesday. Light west to southwest winds this afternoon will become calm tonight, as the high builds in. Flow aloft will light west to northwest tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Flow aloft and clouds around the occlusion may still interfere with river valley fog overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in overnight and early morning river valley fog most mornings this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JLB NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...ARJ