814 FXUS61 KBGM 131050 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 650 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east today as a cold front moves through. Tonight and Wednesday scattered showers will be possible along and north of the NY thruway. Dry conditions are expected for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 630 am update... Minor changes to the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures behind the cold front fell into the 50s so lowered hourly and min temperatures. 330 am update... Active weather continues this period. a cold front is progressing east across the CWA early this morning. Ahead of is is an west to east band of showers and a few thunderstorms. There is some heavy rain as some of the cells get slowed by the terrain in the western Catskills and upper Susquehanna region. Instability is pushing into eastern NY well ahead of the better shear. Severe thunderstorms are not expected this morning. The cold front should be exiting the western Catskills before any breaks in the clouds form which would allow heating and instability. PWATs are dropping but localized 1 to 2 inch rain amounts will still be possible east of I81 this morning. As the cut off low over western Lake Erie moves northeast more showers will be possible in CNY late today through Wednesday. The low will be moving down the St Lawrence Seaway this evening. This sets up a northwest flow of cool moist flow off the great lakes into Syracuse and Rome. 850mb temperatures fall to +7C. Multiple short waves will keep the flow shifting across our northern counties. Rain amounts will be light. From the southern tier of NY south skies will be mostly sunny. High temperatures will be from the upper 60s and lower 70s in CNY to the 70s in NEPA today. Lows tonight will be in the 50s. Dry advection and strong boundary level winds will prevent most of the valley fog. Wednesday high temperatures will be mostly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 335 AM Update... The coldest pocket of air moves through falling to around 5C at 850 mb Wendesday night as a weak 500 mb shortwave moves through. Dry air at the surface moving across Lake Ontario could limit the lake effect shower potential but given the large difference between the lake temperature (22C) and 850 (5C) there will likely be some showers able to develop so a slight chance of rain showers was kept for the first half of the night. With the cold air aloft on Thursday, highs stay cooler with most areas staying in the 60s and only a few of the lower valleys in NEPA reaching into the 70s. Surface high builds in Thursday night and with clear skies with dry air, good conditions are in place for radiational cooling. Lows will fall into the low to mid 40s with a couple of higher valleys in the Catskills and Tug Hill getting into the upper 30s. The surface high slowly propagates to the east on Friday with return flow bringing in a little warmer air. Highs recover a couple of degrees from Thursday but still a pleasant fall like day. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 AM Update... Recent trends in the long term have been more towards ridging rather than zonal flow like the last couple of nights. High temperatures for the weekend into early next week have been bumped up a little as well as lowered precipitation chances for the late weekend into early week with the trough looking flatter and passing farther to the north. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 640 am update... A front is pushing through the region early this morning. Shower coverage has reduced to isolated to scattered. At this time there are no thunderstorms. There is only a small chance at the taf sites today. Conditions vary widely but IFR coverage not as much as expected. ITH/BGM/AVP have IFR but should rise to MVFR between 14 and 17z. After about 2 hours of MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys, conditions go to VFR for part of the afternoon into the evening. Late tonight valley fog at ELM is not expected to form with strong boundary winds. Winds will be light and variable early this morning. This afternoon and into the evening winds will be out of the west at 5 kts. Outlook... Wednesday through Wednesday night...chance for lingering showers and MVFR restrictions for SYR and RME. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, but early morning fog will be possible at ELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL/TAC NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...TAC