501 FXUS64 KBMX 120803 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2022 The cold front as of 3 AM is now observed to be just south of the office to Anniston. Meanwhile the line of showers and storms continue in the southeast, although they are beginning to fall apart. This initial line of convection should dissipate or move out of the area by sunrise. Additional showers/storms may develop in the southeast late morning into the early afternoon with the front itself. After the front moves through, rain chances drop off and will not be back for the short term. Temperatures overnight will drop into the 50s across most of the area with just the far southeast holding the low 60s. A nice taste of fall come sunrise Tuesday morning. Plenty of sun will be around on Tuesday and with the dry airmass temperatures will rise into the middle 80s. 16 && .LONG TERM... Issued at 250 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2022 By mid week we should be well settled into a period of calm, stable weather thanks to a large footprint of high pressure across the eastern CONUS and an associated continental airmass. This will be followed up with a shortwave ridge moving east into the region which should aid in slightly warmer high temperatures Wed through Fri, as well as slightly warmer overnight lows each night. Otherwise, the lack of sufficient moisture and forcing precludes any mentionable PoPs through the end of the period. This is not uncommon when a large, dry airmass sweeps through at the end of the summer. It may be next week before meaningful moisture return occurs that would foster some slight rain chances. Until then, we remain dry and clear. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2022 The band of rain and a few storms are quickly pushing through the area. Really only TOI is left, however shower activity has decreased over the past hour here. There is about a 2 hour window behind this line and the low clouds associated with the cold front itself. Depending on the wind, a brief instance of fog may develop at the eastern sites. However given the brief nature will not include and will focus on the low MVFR deck moving in. Look for the MVFR conditions to dissipate during the morning across the area as the drier air works in. There could be a brief storm/shower at TOI right around 18z to 21z, but only included a VCSH at this time. After that line works through, clearing skies and drier air will be the norm. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front is currently moving across Central Alabama this morning along with a transition to breezy northwesterly winds. Outside of some lingering showers near the front today, much drier air will foster stable, cooler conditions through the next several days. Afternoon RH values will drop to 30-40% through mid week, though slowly increasing toward the weekend. Wetting rains are not forecast for the next several days due to the lack of sufficient moisture. Winds favor a northerly direction on Tuesday and a northeasterly direction on Wednesday as a high pressure system to our north moves east. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 81 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 81 55 85 58 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 80 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 81 57 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 81 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 83 59 85 61 / 20 0 0 0 Montgomery 86 59 87 60 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 86 60 86 59 / 30 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16