782 FXUS63 KMPX 110911 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 411 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Sep 11 2022 Clear skies and calm winds has resulted in widespread fog and mist developing as expected again tonight, although dense fog has remained limited to far-eastern portions of the CWA where dewpoints are higher. This will be one of our chilliest mornings in quite a while as temperatures end up in the low to mid 40s outside of the Twin Cities metro. A few locations falling into the upper 30s would not be surprising either across central Minnesota. Another fantastic fall day is expected today, although high cloud cover will likely increase this afternoon as a cut-off low develops to our southeast over the mid-Mississippi valley. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday and through midweek as the cut-off low moves east of the region and upper level ridging builds into the central CONUS. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with gradually increasing dew points through the week. The ridging begins to breakdown by Thursday/Friday, and models remain in agreement with developing a train of shortwaves that pass over the region and could bring multiple shots at precipitation. Consensus with the track and timing of the shortwaves remains low however, so it's hard to do more than leave general 30-40% precipitation chances in the forecast from Thursday through the weekend. The main area of forcing with the Thursday/Friday systems does appear to stay to our north along the US/Canada border, so there is a decent chance that we stay dry for the later half of the week. The upper level forcing over the weekend looks like it could be more widespread as models show a jet developing over the northern CONUS, and thus could lead to more widespread precipitation chances. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Aside from the potential for fog in southern-eastern MN into western WI overnight through daybreak Sunday, VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites with high pressure arriving. Most degraded fog, down to LIFR-or-worse, will be in interior western WI (thus impacting EAU) with MVFR- worthy fog possible at RNH-MKT-STC. Any fog that develops will dissipate shortly after sunrise with morning mixing but the most persistent fog looks to be in western WI. KMSP...Morning fog may be an issue at satellite metro airports but not expected at MSP. Otherwise, no concerns through this duration. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Wed...VFR. Wind SE 8-12 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...JPC