097 FXUS64 KOHX 102339 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 639 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday Night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Overall CAMs, North American, and global models showing not much change to previous forecast reasoning for the short term, and even the long term for that matter. Best chance of precipitation looks to continue to be tomorrow afternoon with numerous showers and storms possible. However, continue not to expect any organized strong to severe potential even with heightened instability as Sunday afternoon progresses. Look for surface front to move through mid state region on Sunday night as current upper level low to our southwest gets absorbed into upper level troughing as next few hours progress. Also look for lows tonight to continue to be mild with lows actually being a few degrees cooler than seasonal normal values Sunday night per above mentioned surface frontal passage. Highs on Sunday will be a generally a few degrees below seasonal normal values ranging mainly in low to mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Some lingering isolated showers across Cumberland Plateau Region as Monday morning hours progress. Otherwise, high pressure influences will be the main player from Monday afternoon through next Saturday. Initial seasonally cool temperatures at first part of work week with this high pressure surface and aloft ridging scenario in place will eventually weaken with time with a more southerly low level flow regime developing as temperatures eventually warm to around or even slightly warmer than seasonal normal values by Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022 Increasing moisture moving into the region will keep cloud cover in place overnight, with lowering cigs to MVFR/IFR later tonight. Fog development will also be possible at all terminals tonight, especially at KCSV where IFR and even LIFR fog may occur overnight. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase after 12Z, with best chances during the afternoon hours Sunday. Cigs may rise to VFR at times, with MVFR cigs hanging around from mid morning and with any showers and storms impacting terminals. Winds will be light overnight, becoming southerly/southwesterly by late morning around 5 to 10 knots and more westerly by the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 84 60 80 / 40 80 60 0 Clarksville 66 80 55 77 / 50 80 20 0 Crossville 64 77 57 72 / 20 60 70 20 Columbia 66 83 57 80 / 40 80 50 0 Cookeville 66 80 59 75 / 30 70 70 10 Jamestown 64 78 57 72 / 30 70 70 20 Lawrenceburg 66 81 57 78 / 30 70 50 0 Murfreesboro 66 84 59 80 / 40 80 60 0 Waverly 66 82 57 80 / 50 80 20 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Barnwell