335 FXUS64 KMRX 230537 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Morristown TN 137 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 .UPDATE... FOR 06Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... Cool front is slowly moving south and east across the area and is currently near the Tennessee and North Carolina state line to far southeast Tennessee. Winds at CHA remain light southerly. Frontal boundary will continue to pull south of the area by early Tuesday morning. Kept a slight chance of showers going through around midnight. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy sky, light/calm winds, and plenty of low-level moisture will allow for patchy to areas of fog to develop overnight, especially near area waterways. Some of the fog will be dense. Current temperature forecast look good. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF DISCUSSION. Main aviation weather concern is possible fog development early in the period. Fog looks likely at TRI, and will take vbsy/cigs there as low as IFR with a tempo of LIFR. At CHA/TYS will just include a tempo MVFR vsby group. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022/ SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)... Key Messages: 1. Clearing conditions behind the front. Showers and an outside chance of a storm still possible along the mountains. 2. Patchy fog in the morning. DISCUSSION... Aloft, the upper level trough axis is now just to our east. An upper level ridge with weak flow aloft will be slowly shifting into our area. What this means is clearer conditions today and Tuesday as surface high pressure builds in. Before that occurs, a weak cold front will move over the area from northwest to southeast this evening. Showers are continuing to decrease in coverage this afternoon, but a shower may linger early primarily over the eastern terrain areas this evening. Residual moisture, clearing skies, and high pressure building in will support patchy fog development in the morning hours. Temperatures will generally run a bit below seasonal normals for the short term period. KS LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Key Messages: 1. Generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday with near normal temperatures. 2. Increasing moisture Thursday and especially Friday/Saturday will lead to increased chances for showers and storms. Discussion: Wednesday is looking to remain dry for most of the area, except for an isolated storm in the mountains and along the border with Georgia. Thursday looks to be the trickiest day of the extended range. The GFS and Euro continue to show different solutions for the strength of the shortwave coming through the South, with the Euro's stronger solution yielding a more wet forecast for our area. The NBM agrees and maintains the rainier solution as well. Regardless of model differences with rain on Thursday, daily chances return to each afternoon from Thursday onward through the weekend. The upper level flow begins to veer more southwesterly as troughing develops lee of the Rockies. This favors increased cloudiness and will be responsible for the rain and storm chances. Temperatures will be near climatological normals through the forecast. Wellington && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 66 88 69 86 / 10 10 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 85 64 89 68 87 / 0 0 20 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 85 64 88 66 86 / 0 0 10 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 61 87 65 86 / 0 0 10 10 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$