437 FXUS64 KBRO 222338 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 638 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 A continuation of hot and mostly dry weather is expected through the short term. Overnight lows settle in the upper 70s to near 80 the next few nights with highs climbing into the upper 90s to lower 100s Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will be very limited for most of the region with the best chance across the Rio Grande Plains later in the Tuesday afternoon. A dam H5 ridge over Deep South Texas is getting squeezed out of the region by a trough digging across the middle of the country. This trough is pushing a cold front through Texas this afternoon and has been the focal point for very heavy rain across North Texas. The front is forecast to sag south over the next 24 hours before stalling well to our north, which means we remain on the drier side of things. There is also some drier mid-level air that will further prohibit showers and storms Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, showers and storms are expected to flare up along the front across Central Texas Tuesday afternoon and dive south. As they do so, one or two could hold together long enough to impact the Rio Grande Plains, hence the higher rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 A fairly active weather pattern will setup over Deep South Texas through much of the long-term period as an upper-level trough slides into the South/Southeastern CONUS midweek. The southern/southwestern periphery of the trough will extend into central/southeast Texas, helping push a weak frontal boundary/surface trough into South Texas, north of the RGV, Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast models are in fair agreement that low-level moisture will pool along and ahead of the surface boundary and increase precipitation chances for Deep South Texas, especially Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and possibly into Sunday as well. PWATs will gradually increase through midweek and rise to near or just above 2.0” by Thursday afternoon. The best support for precipitation will remain north of the BRO CWA, near the surface boundary, but there should be enough low-level convergence, lift, and instability to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through the upcoming workweek, with Thursday and Friday being the wettest days (30-40% PoPs) of the period. The forecast confidence for this upcoming weekend is pretty low overall, but both GFS and ECMWF are hinting at another weak tropical wave/inverted upper-trough entering the Bay of Campeche late in the week before pushing over the southwestern/western Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Will have to monitor this scenario over the next few days. Increased cloud cover will lead to relatively cooler high temperatures, especially after Wednesday, with highs generally ranging from around 90 along the coast to the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s out west. Heat indices will top out in the 105-109 range. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 VFR conditions observed now at the TAF sites with moderate to fresh and gusty southeast winds and only a few clouds. The radar is quiet. High clouds from convection along a cold front across central Texas are headed south and will move overhead tonight. Otherwise, winds will die down to light. Scattered to broken CU will develop on Tuesday along the coast as moderate to breezy southeast winds develop. Weaker winds and fewer clouds will prevail farther inland. Slightly drier conditions will develop on Tuesday, with lower PWATs. The models are not showing much of a sea breeze. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2022 Now through Tuesday night...Winds will continue to bump up against Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions this afternoon through early this evening, especially for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are expected thanks to a relatively weak pressure gradient with a stalling front to our north and high pressure sprawling across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas will generally run between 3 to 4 feet with south to southeasterly winds between 10 to 20 knots the next couple of days. Wednesday through Saturday...Generally moderate south/southeast winds and seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast during the period with high pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre during the afternoon hours, but Small Craft Advisories are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 79 97 79 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 97 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 10 MCALLEN 100 79 101 79 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 78 102 79 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 89 81 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 80 93 80 / 10 0 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....69-Farris AVIATION...54-BHM