724 FXUS64 KTSA 211134 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Early this morning...several meso/synoptic features were present across the region which will set the stage for multiple rounds of precip chances across parts of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas through the mid week. First...an upper level trof axis was drifting east southeast across the Midwest which was pushing a cold front into Northeast Oklahoma. Ahead of this boundary was a southeastward moving outflow boundary associated with ongoing convection across Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few of these storms had become strong with gusty downburst wind gusts. Secondly...a west to east positioned moisture axis had developed near the Red River with precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. At the same time...a disturbance located over the Oklahoma Texas Panhandles was making its way eastward. As the disturbance interacts with the ample amounts of moisture...additional showers and storms were ongoing/developing and pushing east and northeast toward the region. Through this afternoon...the frontal boundary in Northeast Oklahoma is expected to continue to sag southward through the CWA and become nearly stationary near the Red River by this evening. The disturbance to the west is also progged to move eastward into the region. These features combined with ample amounts of moisture will aid in shower and thunderstorm chances remaining possible along and north of Interstate 40...with scattered showers and storms likely along and south of Interstate 40. These conditions will help to keep high temps in the 80s for most locations. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 434 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 The greater precip chances south of I-40 continue tonight with the frontal boundary holding near the Red River...and the disturbance over the region interacting with large amounts of moisture being carried into the region from the southerly low level flow south of the front. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to locally over 1.5 inches are possible for parts of Southeast Oklahoma through tonight. Latest data continues to indicate locations near and especially south of the Red River having the greater potential for the higher end rainfall amounts. Mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary would suggest training of storms...which could create some localized flooding concerns for far Southeast Oklahoma. However...at this time will continue to hold off on a Flood Watch with the ongoing drought conditions and the highest rainfall amounts still expected south of the CWA. The upper level disturbance does not begin to shift east of the CWA until Monday evening and finally exits Tuesday. The frontal boundary also looks to remain in the region of the Red River Monday...and then should start to become oriented more southwest to northeast and push just southeast of the CWA with the exiting disturbance Tuesday. With these features still over the region...additional shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday into Tuesday...mainly along and south of I-40. Additional rainfall amounts look to be a little lighter compared to today's forecast amounts...with the highest amounts again expected south of the CWA. With the majority of the precip chances along and south of I-40 Monday and Tuesday...partly cloudy skies and warmer conditions are forecast north of I-40. High temps Monday and Tuesday in the mid 80s to low 90s are possible north of I-40...while upper 70s to mid 80s are forecast south of I-40. By the middle part of the week...a secondary weak impulse looks to move across the region Wednesday which could add a slight chance of precip to Southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise...a ridge of high pressure begins to build eastward into the Southern Plains late week with high temps back closer to the seasonal average of low/mid 90s for much of the CWA Thursday into Saturday. At the tail end of the forecast package...another wave looks to move into the Plains with the return of shower and thunderstorm chances as well as possible cooler conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to affect northern sites this morning, and another area of showers and thunderstorms is developing into sern OK. Activity reducing vsbys in nwrn AR sites at this time should shift out of the area by 14-16z. MLC, and even FSM, will likely experience reduced vsbys in intermittent showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Some of the latest guidance suggests fog potential northern sites late tonight, but this is going to depend on how much clearing occurs and how far south the clearing line shifts tonight. Given the uncertainty and the potential being in the late portion of this forecast period, will not include at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 86 68 90 67 / 20 10 10 10 FSM 85 70 86 69 / 50 20 30 20 MLC 81 70 85 68 / 70 40 50 20 BVO 89 64 91 61 / 10 10 10 0 FYV 83 64 86 61 / 30 10 10 10 BYV 83 64 85 64 / 20 10 10 10 MKO 83 67 87 66 / 40 20 20 10 MIO 86 64 89 63 / 10 0 0 0 F10 81 67 86 66 / 60 20 20 10 HHW 81 72 79 70 / 90 80 80 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...69