663 FXUS62 KTAE 161404 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1004 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .UPDATE... No changes have been made to the forecast. Currently we are seeing a mix of sun and clouds moving with the northwest steering flow. The cloud cover currently is keeping our northern counties a few degrees cooler with that trend expected to continue if clouds persist. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected in our SE AL and FL counties with the possibility for some isolated severe storms in the mix. The primary hazards today will be gusty winds and heavy rain. && .PREV DISCUSSION [612 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A weak surface trough draped across the area is expected to interact with increasing deep layer moisture and the afternoon seabreeze to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly portions of the Florida panhandle, big bend, and southern Georgia. The highest rain chances are expected to be closer to the coast. Gusty winds, locally heavy rain, and lightning will be the main threats. High temperatures are expected to be in the 90-95 range across most of the area. Rather high dewpoints near the coast are expected to result in max afternoon heat index values around 105 across portions of the Florida panhandle and big bend. For tonight, convection over land is expected to diminish quickly after sunset with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for most of the area. .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Tuesday]... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday with light westerly to slightly north of westerly winds keeping lower dewpoints at the surface as a weak frontal boundary sags into the area. Forecast soundings show a fairly pronounced inverted V during the afternoon hours with forecast DCAPE near 800-1000 J/kg indicating a damaging wind threat. As such, SPC has outlooked most of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Showers and storms should diminish over the evening hours. A wet pattern is forecast for the remainder of the week with heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding possible. The trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to deepen a bit once again with the axis positioned west of our region. Deep layer moisture is forecast to remain entrenched over the area with forecast PWs near 2.0-2.2 inches, which are high even by August standards. The stalled front is forecast to remain overhead or just north of the area on Thursday, which may provide a focusing mechanism for developing showers and thunderstorms. Favorable jet dynamics are also expected as the region becomes situated within the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Regardless of where the actual front ends up, outflows from developing showers and thunderstorms along with the seabreeze will create widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. The pattern is forecast to remain fairly consistent from Thursday into Friday and even Saturday to some extent, so several rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible through that time period. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are forecast with these storms, with locally higher totals likely. Given the wet pattern we've been in recently, these pockets of higher rainfall may cause flooding issues. By Sunday into early next week the trough axis has swung well northeast of the area with a return to more typical summertime convection is expected. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 for much of the long term period with the substantial increase in rain chances. Low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 70s. .AVIATION... [Through 12z Wednesday] A few remnant showers near KVLD and not too far from KTLH still exist early this morning from last night's activity. These showers will likely weaken this morning, but additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Florida panhandle, big bend, and adjacent sections of far southern Georgia, possibly affecting areas around KECP, KTLH, and KVLD. .MARINE... Southwesterly to westerly winds and seas near 2 to 3 feet are expected for most of the upcoming period, with increasing rain chances over the waters mid-week into the weekend. Cautionary conditions will be possible at times as a cold front approaches the region. .FIRE WEATHER... Humidity is forecast to remain well above critical thresholds, and there are no fire weather concerns other than the potential for occasional high dispersions. A wetter pattern is expected to return by the middle to end of the week. .HYDROLOGY... A drier air mass is forecast to keep conditions fairly quiet for the next couple of days. However, a wet pattern returns Thursday into the weekend with several rounds of heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding of urban and/or poor drainage areas possible. Rises on area rivers will be possible, but river flooding is not anticipated at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 74 95 73 91 / 40 20 30 40 70 Panama City 90 76 92 75 89 / 50 10 20 40 70 Dothan 94 72 93 71 87 / 10 10 40 50 80 Albany 93 72 93 72 85 / 20 10 40 50 80 Valdosta 93 72 95 73 90 / 40 10 40 40 80 Cross City 91 77 94 76 93 / 40 30 50 30 70 Apalachicola 89 78 91 76 88 / 50 20 20 30 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Darish NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM...Merrifield AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Merrifield