608 FXUS64 KOHX 160524 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1224 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 A few isolated showers have been making their way through the eastern half of the area this evening. Their weakening trend will continue and the remainder of the night is expected to be pleasant and dry. Low temperatures are running a couple of degrees warmer than previously forecasted, but we still stand a good chance of seeing temperatures dip into the 60s Tuesday morning. As temps cool fog development will be possible around bodies of water around sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 The quiet weather continues today with a weak front moving through the area, bringing some cooler temps and northerly flow. A few echoes have showed up on radar but nothing of concern. CAMs show more isolated activity, mainly in the northeast as a shortwave aloft moves through the northwest flow. Some fog looks to be possible overnight, mainly near lakes and rivers, and will again be possible into Wednesday morning. Another shortwave trough will move into the area Tuesday, and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the west and south during the afternoon into the overnight hours. Models have backed off a bit on northeasterly coverage with the precip, and have moved better rainfall amounts to the southwest with this morning's runs. This is especially true for the overnight hours Tuesday night into the late morning Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022 Another shortwave will move to the southeast from the Plains/Midwest Wednesday and bring better rain chances to the southwest portion of the mid state. This wave, as mentioned earlier, has been moving further to the south and west with each run, keeping the higher rainfall amounts out of the area. Still, there could be amounts up around an inch in southwest zones should the upper trough reverse its course in recent model trends. Overall, not expecting any flooding concerns attm as PWAT values are around 1.5 inches and instability is lacking due to the cold front/northerly flow to start off the week. Thursday looks to start off dry as the large broad trough over the eastern CONUS begins to lift off to the northeast. Afternoon showers and storms look to be possible, especially in the east on Thursday. By Friday, we will begin to inherit the effects of a shortwave trough overhead, and a stronger shortwave to our northwest. Not expecting widespread convection but again better chances in eastern zones during the afternoon. Saturday and Sunday will see the shortwave in the Midwest keep afternoon chances for showers and storms in the forecast, especially on Sunday. The active weather pattern looks to continue next week as northwest flow aloft returns on both the GFS and ECMWF along with another possible broad trough over the eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...VFR conditions with northerly winds under 10 kts for the TAF period. There could be some light fog at CSV overnight reducing VIS to MVFR. If this does occur it will dissipate quickly after sunrise. Otherwise some afternoon and evening showers will be possible at CKV/BNA/MQY and have included VCSH 17Z to 01Z. There is a bit more confidence for CKV and have a TEMPO for 1619/1623Z. Even with the showers still expect VFR conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 83 65 84 65 / 30 20 20 10 Clarksville 78 63 82 63 / 50 20 30 0 Crossville 78 62 78 61 / 10 10 20 10 Columbia 83 64 81 63 / 30 40 40 10 Cookeville 80 63 81 62 / 20 10 20 10 Jamestown 78 61 77 61 / 10 10 10 10 Lawrenceburg 83 64 81 63 / 30 40 50 10 Murfreesboro 84 64 83 64 / 20 30 30 10 Waverly 80 63 82 63 / 40 30 40 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Whitehead SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....12