890 
FXUS63 KOAX 142305
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Large scale pattern consisting of an extensive area of upper high 
pressure centered over the central Plains. Meanwhile, downstream 
upper trough was situated over the northeast CONUS. At the surface, 
backdoor cool air advection was keeping current temps in the mid 
70s/low 80s with dew points in the low/mid 60s over the CWA. 

Precip chance increase after midnight as synoptic scale forcing 
increases in part to vort max aloft/stout isentropic 
upglide/moisture advection. The environment will favorable for 
possible excessive rainfall given good precip efficiency/deep warm 
cloud layer/PW around 2". Short term models seem to be in agreement 
focus for heavier rainfall will be across the northern/eastern CWA 
where strong mid layer ageostrophic lift will be more prevalent 
through Monday. By Monday night, models advertise the heavier precip 
to begin expanding southward across the rest of the CWA through 
Tuesday morning. Activity should be coming to a close north to south 
then Tuesday evening. 

By Wednesday, upper trough to the east begins to amplify resulting 
in flow aloft over the central Plains becoming predominately 
northwesterly. Embedded impulses riding down the backside of the upper 
trough will keep precip chances alive heading into and through next 
weekend. 

Highs:  
Mon - mid 70s/mid 80s 
Tue - low 70s
Wed - upper 70s 
Thu - upper 70s/low 80s
Fri - upper 70s/low 80s 
Sat - upper 70s 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

A few showers could be in the vicinity of KOFK at TAF issuance,
and possibly at KOMA by 01-02-06z. Additional showers are expected
at all 3 TAF locations by 09z, with a chance of thunderstorms
through the remainder of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions
through the forecast. 

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...DeWald