207 FXUS66 KMTR 141056 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 356 AM PDT Sun Aug 14 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Gradual warming and drying continues as high pressure builds into the area from the east. && .DISCUSSION...as of 03:52 AM PDT Sunday... Today and Tonight: Expansive mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much of the Western CONUS with upstream troughing from the eastern Pacific through the Pacific Northwest States. Low-level subtropical ridging will prevail across the eastern Pacific with lower pressures over CA and into the Southwestern States. This will maintain a robust pressure gradient with breezy northwesterly winds continuing over the local waters and through the coastal gaps and passes. We'll also see a bit more in the way of coastal stratus this morning and tonight with a compressed marine layer. Otherwise the warming/drying trend will continue for areas removed from the marine layer influence with inland highs mostly in the mid 80s to upper 90s. Coastal spots will again top out in the 60s and 70s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with warmer readings in the higher elevations. Monday through Saturday: Stout mid to upper ridging will remain parked to our east with a weakness across the eastern Pacific. An upper trough will lift north along the CA coast by mid to late week as monsoonal moisture is drawn poleward across the Sierra and into far NorCal. However this moisture should remain out of our area with impacts to our sensible weather appearing unlikely. However with increasing influence from the upper ridge the warming/drying trend will persist for interior areas, with the hottest areas bordering the Central Valley. While portions of San Benito County may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria, it appears that the warmest readings should occur just outside of our area. However temperature trends will be monitored in case adjustments to products and/or messaging are needed. Regardless, make sure to hydrate and take cooling breaks if you have outdoor plans in the interior areas later this week. && .AVIATION... As of 11:22 PM Saturday... For the 06Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR conditions but observing marine stratus developing along the coast and in the East Bay Hills with MVFR/IFR level cigs reported at KHAF/KMRY. The marine layer is pegged between 1000-1200 ft deep, as per coastal profilers. Onshore flow and steady marine layer will allow stratus to spread into the bays, Delta and at least parts of the near coastal valleys overnight. Weak offshore flow in North Bay and shallow marine layer may prevent intrusion into North Bay and interior East Bay. MVFR/IFR cigs will fill in over East Bay, and IFR/possible LIFR cigs filling in over Monterey Bay terminals. Stratus should dissipate by around 17-18z with breezy onshore winds developing in the afternoon. Similar level cigs return Sunday night. Vicinity of KSFO... VFR through late tonight, then possible MVFR/IFR cigs in the early to mid morning hours. Any stratus cover dissipates by 17z-18z with breezy to gusty winds returning in the afternoon, but slightly weaker than those observed today. Potential for low cigs Sunday night - moderate confidence. KSFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay... IFR at KMRY, potentially lowering to LIFR in the early morning hours, for all area terminals, but lowest confidence at KSNS. Stratus should clear around 17-18z with breezy west winds returning Sunday afternoon. Low cigs return Sunday evening/night. && .MARINE...as of 03:52 AM PDT Sunday...Strong northwesterly winds across the coastal waters this weekend and into early next week, with gale force gusts possible in the northern outer waters and near coastal jet regions through at least tonight. Steep, hazardous short period seas will build as a result. Winds begin to weaken Tuesday. Light southwest swell from 14 to 16 seconds continues through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: SPM AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: Lorber Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea