701 FXAK69 PAFG 131256 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 456 AM AKDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Another warm day is on tap across the Central and Eastern Interior with highs topping out in the mid 70s for many locations as ridging holds on. A cold front swinging southeast across the North Slope along with energy moving north into the Interior will bring on changes in the form of cooler temperatures and increased chances of precipitation through the weekend across much of the Western Interior. In other news, north northwest winds 15 to 30 mph will develop this afternoon along the coast, south of Point Hope to the Bering Strait, causing elevated surf with minor beach erosion for north facing coastlines through Sunday, such as Shishmaref, Deering, and Kotzebue. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... The current pattern at 500 hpa consists of an upper level ridge nosing northwest across the Eastern Interior into the Central Interior, while broad troughing stretches from an upper level low in the Arctic south across the West Coast and Western Interior to a 546 decameter (dam) low near Kodiak. A shortwave dropping south from the low over the Arctic, stretching from the Bering Strait northeast across the Northwest Arctic Coast, will push south to Norton Sound this afternoon and to the YK Delta this evening. Another shortwave will dive south from the low in the Arctic Sunday, strengthening and pushing the trough axis east across the Western Interior. By Monday, this shortwave will become a closed 541 dam low over the Western Brooks Range. Meanwhile, the low near Kodiak will meander north and weaken through the weekend. The ridge axis across the Central and Eastern Interior will nudge north and east as the troughing over the Bering and Western Interior deepens, this will result in southerly flow across the Alaska Range. Model Discussion... The models are in general good agreement on the evolution of features on the synoptic scale over the next several days, with the consensus of solutions having troughing digging south across the West Coast and Western Interior while ridging tries to hold on across the Central and Eastern Interior. For this morning's forecast package, we went with a general blend of model solutions, making minor changes to the inherited grids. North Slope and Brooks Range... A front moving inland across western portions of the region this morning will slide east through the day, spreading chances of precipitation with it primarily in the form of rain, with snow possible in the higher elevations of the Brooks Range. An influx of moisture from the south will bring additional chances of rain and snow across the region Sunday, impacting the Central Brooks Range the greatest. Expect a downward trend in temperatures this weekend as cold air moves in behind the front, with highs by Sunday in the mid 30s to lower 40s. West Coast and Western Interior... Rain showers are sweeping across Kotzebue Sound and the Seward Peninsula as a front dives southeast out of the Chukchi this morning. This front will stall out before reaching the Western Interior this afternoon as ridging to the east halts most of the eastward propagation. Energy will lift north across the Western Interior, west of the ridge that is holding strong across the Central and Eastern Interior, late this afternoon and evening, increasing chances of rain showers into and through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances this afternoon will impact portions of the Upper Kuskokwim Valley and to the east. North northwest winds 15 to 30 mph will develop this afternoon along the coast, south of Point Hope to the Bering Strait, causing elevated surf with minor beach erosion for northwest facing coastlines through Sunday. Temperatures will top out in the 60s to near 70 inland today and 40s and 50s along the coast, with a gradual decrease in temperatures Sunday into Monday. Central and Eastern Interior... Are you ready for another warm day, well your in luck, we are expecting many locations to see highs climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s, with cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday. Lows over the next several nights will dip down into the 40s and lower 50s. Clouds will be increasing this afternoon for the Central Interior, with more sun then clouds across the Eastern Interior. In other news, with energy moving north across the Alaska Range combined with the front sweeping southeast into the Western Interior, the greatest chances of rain this weekend will primarily affect areas west of Fairbanks. The isolated thunderstorm threat this afternoon will affect portions of the Yukon Flats southwest to Upper Kuskokwim Valley and east across the Alaska Range to the AlCan, including Fairbanks. Another round of isolated thunderstorms Sunday will impact locations north and east of Fairbanks. Winds generally less than 15 mph from the south southwest through Sunday, with the exception of higher elevations Sunday where winds may increase in that 15 to 20 mph range. Strongest winds will be through and near Alaska Range Passes this weekend, where southerly gap winds 25 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, are expected. Some of the gap winds may make it to Delta Junction, where south winds may top out in the 15 to 20 mph range. Coastal Hazard Potential for Days 3 and 4... No concerns at this time. Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7... For the extended period that begins on Tuesday, broad troughing will remain entrenched across the Bering Sea, West Coast, and Western Interior, while weak ridging tries to hold on over the Eastern Interior. This will bring unsettled conditions and cooler temperatures across the West Coast and Western Interior, while a mix of sun and clouds along with chances of showers to the Eastern and Central Interior. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ridging over the Eastern and Central Interior will result in warm and relatively dry conditions continuing through the weekend, with highs topping out in the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon, with highs on Sunday being slightly cooler. Lows over the next several nights will dip down into the 40s and lower 50s. Minimum RH values will remain above 30 percent this weekend into early next week, with good overnight recovery. The best chances of widespread showers will occur west of the ridge across the Western Interior, with the isolated thunderstorm threat remaining over the Central and Eastern Interior. Winds generally less than 15 mph from the south southwest through Sunday across much of the Interior, with the exception of higher elevations Sunday where winds may increase in that 15 to 20 mph range. Strongest winds will be through and near Alaska Range Passes this weekend, where southerly gap winds of 25 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph, are expected. Some of the gap winds may make it to Delta Junction, where south winds may top out in the 15 to 20 mph range. && .HYDROLOGY... No concerns at this time, for the latest river forecasts go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ RZ AUG 22