332 FXUS64 KBMX 130729 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 229 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ Today through Sunday. This AM a surface front is stalled generally across the US 80/ Interstate 85 corridor. To the N of the front drier air is filtering SWD into the area. Along and S of this boundary, dew points are around 4-10 degrees higher. Keeping that in mind, waiting to see if we get some stratus development soon with the higher low level moisture across the S. Also, some patchy fog in the S will be possible through 1-2 hours after sunrise. Along and S of the boundary is where we could see a few showers this afternoon and evening and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. Although the dew points are lower in the N half and should continue to be so today into much of tonight, we are still looking at warm temperatures today for highs from the mid 80s to the lower 90s, just not as humid across the NRN half. The surface boundary is expected to move back NE on Sunday, so we should see dew points start to rebound back upward as the airmass moderates. 08 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022/ Monday through Friday. After a weekend of relatively low PWAT values across the region, moisture will begin to pool on Monday thanks to low-level convergence. Broadly cyclonic surface to 850 flow will be associated with a persistent mid-level trough over the Northeast CONUS and shortwaves rotating around its base. An cold front is expected to develop and take on an unusual orientation, northwest to southeast, parallel to the the mid-level height gradient. This will support isolated to scattered showers and storms on Monday as a small-scale shortwave rotates around the larger trough. A brief push of drier air may move in behind the front on Tuesday, pushing the bulk of the rainfall activity to our south and west. As the ridge in the Plains relaxes, the trough over the eastern CONUS will become more broadly-based. Impulses aimed at our forecast area will continue to rotate around the trough on Wednesday. This will augment the location of the front and potentially allow westerly low-level flow to advect higher moisture content and instability across much of Central Alabama. As a shortwave moves toward the Tennessee Valley, 500 mb flow may increase to 30-35 kts, setting up the potential for an MCS and severe storms. However, confidence is too low to include this in the HWO at this time. Models are suggesting additional upstream shortwaves and vorticity could reinforce the mid-level trough on Thursday and Friday. This would be supportive of above normal rain chances. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Convection is basically done for the night. However, with the front stationary across the middle of AL, the areas along/near and S of the front (MGM/TOI) may see some patchy fog/stratus tonight. Cigs may start as MVFR and go down to IFR and below, or they may just skip the MVFR and go down quickly. Some fog is possible, but at this time, guidance is hinting that the stratus may be the bigger threat. The main TSRA/SHRA chances for Friday will be across mainly the same general areas in the SRN portions of C AL affecting mainly TOI and to a lesser extent MGM. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will continue to infiltrate the area today behind a slow moving cold front. Low rain chances will be confined to southern portions of the area through the weekend. Minimum RH values will fall into the 40 to 55 percent range over the weekend. 20ft winds will be below 6kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 67 91 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 20 Anniston 88 69 91 70 93 / 10 0 10 0 20 Birmingham 90 70 92 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 91 70 94 72 95 / 10 0 0 0 20 Calera 90 70 91 72 94 / 10 0 10 0 20 Auburn 88 69 89 70 91 / 20 10 10 0 20 Montgomery 93 72 93 72 96 / 20 20 10 0 20 Troy 91 70 90 70 94 / 30 20 20 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$