540 
FXUS65 KFGZ 122151
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
251 PM MST Fri Aug 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across
much of northern Arizona through the weekend. Scattered to
widespread thunderstorms are likely each afternoon, with flash
flooding being the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The day got off to an early start as thunderstorms
fired up over the San Francisco Peaks, leading to flash flooding
over a portion of US Hwy 89. Elsewhere in northern Arizona, 
numerous storms initiated shortly thereafter. With weak storm 
motion and high atmospheric moisture content, flash flooding 
developed as a threat over a broad area. This includes the 
canyonlands near the Utah-Arizona border. Storms are expected to 
continue through the evening and begin to diminish after sunset. 

Tomorrow looks like another active day in the monsoon season, but
with slightly less favorable conditions than today. Precipitable
water values and convective available potential energy (CAPE) are
expected to come down a touch. Storm coverage and timing will 
likely depend on the strength of daytime surface heating. 
Clearing skies in the morning will help destabilize the 
atmosphere, favoring storm development. A Flash Flood Watch is in 
effect tomorrow for much of northern Arizona. Remember to avoid 
areas vulnerable to flooding, and when encountering flooded
roadways while driving, turn around, don't drown!


&&

AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...Widespread TSRA/SHRA will 
begin to wain this evening between 02Z and 04Z with ISO TSRA/SHRA 
possible overnight. Expect gusty winds near storms with heavy rain 
and/or hail reducing visibility, potentially causing periods of 
MVFR/IFR. VFR conditions and light surface winds away from storms. 
More TSRA/SHRA return Saturday beginning after 18Z. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...Widespread showers and storms continue over the 
weekend with peak activity in the afternoons. Expect gusty, erratic 
outflow winds near storms with localized flash flooding possible. 
Light winds away from storms with seasonally cool temperatures. 

Sunday through Tuesday...Scattered to numerous showers and storms 
through the middle of next week with similar conditions each day.

&&

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ004>008-012>018-
037-038-104>108-112>118-137-138.


Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for 
AZZ004>008-012>018-037-038-104>108-112>118-137-138.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BJ
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...JM


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff