630 
FXUS64 KMRX 120303
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1103 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Updated grids and zones based on radar trends. Precip should be
ending by early morning. Then areas of fog expected.

GC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A primarily VFR forecast with a cold front moving through the 
region this evening and overnight. Clouds will clear behind the 
front from north to south. Those areas that receive adequate 
clearing and calm winds would see MVFR or lower fog conditions 
towards morning. At this point, TRI and to a lesser degree TYS 
would be the best sites. Boundary layer flow may be just enough to
mitigate fog development at CHA and will leave mention out for 
now. Friday will feature VFR and mostly clear skies with light 
northerly wind. 

Diegan


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 720 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022/
SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms will end this evening, then some 
patchy fog later tonight.

2. Less humid with high temperatures a bit below seasonal normals 
Friday.

Discussion:

The frontal boundary pushing through the area will finally push to 
our south early tonight.  The remaining convection along/south of 
the front will come to an end as the front exits. With any low level 
drying expected to be meager tonight and at least partial clearing 
of the sky, some patchy fog is expected to develop especially 
northern half of the area, which may be locally dense.  

Some weak short wave energy will be diving southeast and deepening 
the upper level eastern trough later tonight/early Friday, but looks 
too moisture starved to bring anything more than a temporary uptick 
in clouds. Surface high pressure will be building in from the 
northwest on Friday, with quite a bit of sunshine and less humid 
conditions for the afternoon. High temperatures Friday will be a few 
degrees below seasonal normals. 

LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

1. Dry and milder conditions anticipated for the weekend. 

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return next week.

Discussion:

At the beginning of the forecast period both frontal boundaries will 
be south of us, leaving us with temperatures dipping into the mid 
50s to mid 60s overnight on Friday. Saturday is shaping up to be the 
pick day for the weekend with Northwesterly flow in the upper levels 
and high pressure to keep conditions dry across East TN. High temps 
on Saturday are only going to climb to the mid 80s with dew points 
hanging in the 50-60 degree range--it will likely feel very pleasant 
for any Saturday plans you may have. Sunday will remain mostly dry 
as well--moisture returns Sunday which brings rain chances back into 
the forecast toward the evening and overnight hours. To our north, 
low pressure is centered over Chicago on Sunday with a cold front 
trailing behind.

Increased rain and thunderstorm chances return on Monday while we 
are between a trough on the East coast and a ridge over the plains. 
Shortwave impulses riding between these neighboring features into 
our area could trigger showers and storms. Some of this activity 
will also be associated with the aforementioned low pressure and 
front as it moves eastward. It is expected to move through the 
Central Appalachians and towards the Mid-Atlantic states, pulling 
the frontal boundary behind it through the Midwest and Ohio River 
Valley, and into Kentucky. By Tuesday, the low is centered over the 
NY/NJ area and the cold front has cleared our area. Towards the end 
of the extended period, Wednesday and Thursday look to be drier 
again with the frontal boundary well south of us by the Gulf Coast 
and sfc high pressure over East TN.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$