183 FXUS61 KBTV 091917 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Variably cloudy skies and patchy fog and drizzle will remain possible into tonight as cool high pressure continues to build southward into the area behind a departing cold front. Quiet weather is expected to continue on Wednesday, after which another front will swing through the area on Thursday with a few showers and storms. Behind this front, mainly dry and beautiful late summer weather is expected for Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Tuesday...Generally a quiet forecast period tonight into Wednesday night as eastern nose of surface high pressure continues to nose southward into the area. A fairly strong inversion continues to set up behind this morning's frontal passage on light northerly flow. This feature combined with the blocked nature of the low level flow and persistent moisture through about 875 hPa should ensure variable cloud cover will continue tonight. Many signals suggest a return of some patchy fog/drizzle/mist overnight in many areas, with fog most favored in the SLV where late night clearing is expected. Low temperatures should fall to seasonable levels, and close to national blended guidance in the 50s to around 60. Clouds then gradually scatter out over time tomorrow with a nice afternoon setting up as highs top out in the 70s with tolerable humidity levels. Winds light. Then mostly clear/partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday night with low temperatures similar to tonight. Patchy fog also a good bet in favored valleys/hollows in eastern VT/Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 317 PM EDT Tuesday...Unseasonably strong northern stream shortwave, trof and cold front for Thursday. Some decent moisture pooling (PWATS 1-1.5 inches) along/ahead of cold front as well as timing of front during peak daytime heating for some decent instability along with falling hgts and 500mb temps should bring about chc of scattered showers/t-storms Thursday and with 0-6km bulk shear 35-40+kts can't rule out an isold severe if strong enough updrafts. Cold front moving east of forecast area Thu night with good cold air advection bringing a true cleansing our our airmass with lows in the 40s/50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 317 PM EDT Tuesday...Cold front will be across or just offshore of eastern New England Friday while the upper trough stalls across New England due to a blocking ridge in the northern Atlantic. Meanwhile...Moisture is limited thus don't see any showers but deep blue skies and white puffy cumulus/stratocumulus skies for Friday and Saturday and unseasonably cool with Friday being the coolest...highs U60s-L70s and 70s on Saturday and lows in the 40s/50s. Eventually the deep trof crawls east into eastern New England and then points northeast Sunday and early next week but a broad cyclonic flow remains. Surface high pressure moves in as well and maintains control into Monday with gradual moderating temperatures to seasonable levels m-u70s/l80s and dry. Monday night-Tuesday, another shortwave in the broad cyclonic northern stream will possibly drop across Great Lakes/SE Canada with another cold front/trof for a chance of showers...esp Tuesday aftn. No significant heat on the horizon as heat ridge will be positioned across Rockies/western Plains during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Variable conds across the area with widespread MVFR and occnl IFR cigs across northern terminals, and mainly VFR at KMPV/KRUT under post-frontal light northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots. Through 02Z expect a general persistence of conditions with a mix of MVFR/VFR at northern terminals - locally IFR at SLK, and VFR south. Thereafter, signals suggest a general lowering of cigs/vsbys to MVFR/IFR across the whole area with patchy drizzle/fog in favored locales. Winds light. After 12Z Wednesday, a slow lifting of ceilings/vsbys are expected. Winds light north/northwesterly around 5 kts. Outlook... Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...SLW AVIATION...JMG