525 FXUS63 KMQT 040651 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 251 AM EDT Thu Aug 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today) Issued at 250 AM EDT THU AUG 4 2022 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show low amplitude ridging over the Rockies and a deep mid-level low over Hudson Bay, resulting in wnw flow over the Upper Great Lakes early this morning. Upstream mid- level ridge is supporting sfc high pres over MN. In advance of the high, drier air filtering into Upper MI has lowered sfc dwpts into the 50s F. Patches of clouds of varying heights are noted over portions of Lake Superior and western and northern Upper MI. Lowest clouds (stratus) are streaming off eastern Lake Superior into Alger/Luce counties. Temps currently range from the mid 50s to the lwr 60s F. A nice early Aug day is on the way for Upper MI as the sfc high pres currently over MN settles over the Upper Great Lakes this aftn. Expect the patches of cloud cover to dissipate thru the morning hrs, followed by some diurnal cu development for the aftn. High temps will be in the 70s F, but may reach 80F s central. Onshore winds along Lake Superior will hold some lakeside locations to the upper 60s F, especially across the eastern fcst area. Dwpts will range thru the 50s F for a relatively comfortable day for this time of year. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022 Some calmer wx moves back in tonight as ridging builds back in. However, with a pressure gradient moving over us this weekend, expect plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Some more dry weather is in store early next week. Showers and thunderstorms exit the far east early this evening as the cold front moves out of the area. Behind the cold front, some partly cloudy skies may help insulate the area a little; nevertheless, low temps tonight are still expected to bottom out to the 50s. As a sfc high builds in from the west tomorrow, expect sunny skies but cooler temps as the air from behind the cold front still influences Upper MI; high temps Thursday are expected to range from the upper 60s near the Lake Superior shoreline to the mid 70s in the interior west. As the sfc high pressure continues eastwards Thursday night, expect a clear night with lows still remaining mainly in the 50s, with a few spots in the interior east possible dipping below 50. Mostly sunny skies are expected Friday as a pressure gradient begins to build in from northern MN... Showers and thunderstorms are expected back over the area this weekend as a tight sfc pressure gradient makes its way over us. Some heavy rainfall could be seen at times this weekend as ensembles project PWATs to be over the 90th percentile compared to climatology. In addition, we could see rainfall occur over the same areas Saturday through Sunday as the pressure gradient moves slowly to the east this weekend. On the warm side of the gradient, expect anomalously warm temps; the NBM has some spots reaching 90 Friday and Saturday. Temps drop down to below normal behind the tight gradient as it moves through and troughing takes hold over Upper MI. For next week, expect drier conditions as ensemble guidance shows less precipitable water in the atmosphere. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms with the passage of a shortwave moving through northern Ontario around next Wednesday, but even then, chances of rainfall are not looking all that great. Otherwise, expect a return to near normal temps. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1151 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022 VFR conditions will prevail thru this fcst period at IWD/CMX/SAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 324 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2022 As a cold front leaves Lake Superior this evening, expect west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over the eastern lake to die down to 20 knots or less by midnight tonight. Expect the light winds of 20 knots or less to continue until Friday night, when southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots are projected over the eastern lake ahead of a tight pressure gradient. As the pressure gradient moves over Lake Superior by Saturday morning, expect the winds to die down to 20 knots or less. Some patchy fog is possible across the eastern lake tonight. Otherwise, some thunderstorms are possible over the far eastern lake early this evening. More thunderstorms are possible Friday night into Sunday as a tight pressure gradient between a trough and the sfc high currently moving over us slowly makes its way over Lake Superior this weekend. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...Voss MARINE...TAP