512 FXUS64 KAMA 021935 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022 .SHORT TERM... Typical summer weather for the Panhandles continues for at least the next couple days, with hot temperatures and the potential for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as a weak front arrives. This afternoon into tonight, northwesterly flow aloft continues as an upper high remains centered over AZ/NM. While the flow pattern is potentially favorable for convection during the late afternoon and evening, progged soundings are in good agreement that warm temperatures aloft due to the presence of the ridge should keep convection from forming outside of perhaps the extreme northwestern Panhandles. Wednesday, shortwave moving southeastward over the Upper Midwest will usher a front southward. While this front will offer little in the way of relief from hot temperatures, just a bit of moisture may pool behind this boundary. This, in addition to the front providing a low level lifting mechanism, may lead to showers and thunderstorms developing during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Given healthy mixing today with downslope southwesterly winds, surface mixed layer just south of the front may support strong wind gusts if thunderstorms develop. Deep layer shear remains paltry, so anything aside from a stray severe gust appears unlikely. Finally, given the slowing frontal boundary and prospect for convective development along it during the afternoon, cannot rule out a landspout if efficient mixing occurs during the morning ahead of convective initiation. That said, showers may develop early and limit surface mixing, so will need to wait until tomorrow before making any pronouncements on this stretchy subject. Ferguson && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday Night... The ridge will shift further east on Thursday. There may be a residual boundary left over in the southern Panhandles, and we can't rule out some scattered storms in the morning, as well as the afternoon and evening. The high will pull off to the northeast a bit more on Friday into Saturday, and as a result some return Gulf moisture from the southeast could result in another round of showers and storms across the southern Panhandles Friday evening. As the high strengthens over the central and western CONUS over the rest of the weekend through Monday, most of the moisture will pump out of the south into the NM area. We may get a few showers/storms along the western border. Overall, the temperatures will continue to be very warm with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Weber && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs... Confidence is very high (95%) that VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Only potential complication would be a stray thunderstorm, but these will tend to wait until after 18z Wednesday. Otherwise, southwesterly winds at all sites will begin to become northerly as a weak front arrives during the day Wednesday. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 97 70 96 / 5 20 30 30 Beaver OK 76 100 71 99 / 5 10 20 10 Boise City OK 69 94 66 93 / 10 20 20 20 Borger TX 78 101 73 100 / 5 20 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 74 97 70 96 / 5 20 30 30 Canyon TX 73 98 70 95 / 5 20 30 30 Clarendon TX 77 100 74 97 / 5 10 20 20 Dalhart TX 69 94 67 94 / 5 20 20 20 Guymon OK 72 98 69 97 / 5 20 20 10 Hereford TX 73 99 70 97 / 5 20 30 30 Lipscomb TX 77 101 73 99 / 5 20 20 20 Pampa TX 76 99 71 97 / 5 20 30 20 Shamrock TX 77 102 74 99 / 5 10 20 20 Wellington TX 77 103 76 101 / 5 5 10 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 77/89/77