431 FXUS62 KJAX 290004 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 804 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. The only exception will be MVFR conditions due to shallow fog at KVQQ 09-12Z. Mostly clear skies and light SW winds expected overnight will become calm inland at KGNV and KVQQ after 09Z while staying elevated 6-10 knots at KSGJ and KSSI. Winds will increase from the SW 4-8 knots after 14Z across the regional terminals and shift at the coastal and Duval TAF sites behind the Atlantic seabreeze from the south southeast 10-12 knots with few to scattered clouds 4.0-5.0 kft, but chances for rain showers or storms are too low to include in this TAF package. && .PREV DISCUSSION [311 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... The high pressure ridge extending from the Bermuda high in the Atlantic remains in place over the local area with the axis positioned over Central FL. GOES-16 shows lower PWATs ranging from 1.5-1.8 inches in place across most of the area, with an area of slightly higher PWATs ranging from 1.8-2 inches over far inland SE GA and the northern Suwannee Valley. Drier air and high pressure subsidence are limiting precipitation chances this afternoon and evening, only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible. Southwesterly winds have pinned the Atlantic sea breeze along the east coast. A slight increase (not by much) in precipitation chances may be possible along the immediate coast and nearshore Atlantic waters this evening as the Gulf sea breeze converges with the Atlantic sea breeze. Showers and storms will quickly fade after sunset, then dry weather will prevail overnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower and middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... High pressure ridging will remain in control of the local weather. A front will push into the southeastern states Friday into Saturday, but stall well north of the area over northern GA. Friday, southwesterly winds will be lighter than they are today, which will allow the Atlantic sea breeze to move further inland. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes are expected to converge west of I-95, most likely between I-75 and the US-301 corridor. Waves of drier air will continue to move over the area, suppressing convection. Only isolated showers and storms are expected in the afternoon and evening, mainly inland with the best chances along the sea breeze merger. Precipitation chances will taper off after sunset with dry weather and mostly clear skies expected overnight. Saturday, another day of suppressed convection is expected. Winds will shift to southerly, allowing the sea breezes to move inland again, but dry air will limit convective development along these boundaries. Only isolated showers and storms expected north and west of Waycross in SE GA and along and west of the I-75 corridor in NE FL south of Gainesville during the afternoon and evening. Saturday night will be dry with mostly clear skies. Seasonably hot temperatures will continue. Friday high temperatures will be in the lower and middle 90s area wide, Saturday high temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer in the middle to upper 90s inland and lower 90s along the coast. Heat index values are expected to reach 102-106 degrees both afternoons. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 70s both nights. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Wednesday]... High pressure will remain in control of the local weather with daily afternoon sea breezes. The ridge will be positioned over the area through early next week, then weaken over the local area slightly while shifting to the east mid week. Below average precipitation chances are expected to continue through Monday with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoons and evenings. As high pressure scoots away, precipitation chances will increase mid week with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. High temperatures in the 90s and low temperatures in the 70s will continue. Heat index values are forecast to reach 102-106 degrees each afternoon. .MARINE... Daily winds surges are expected in the evenings and nights to near Caution levels. Small Craft should Exercise Caution in the offshore waters tonight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the nearshore waters this evening. Winds will generally be southerly through early next week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at all area beaches through this weekend. .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the sea breezes on Friday. Light transport winds will result in isolated low daytime dispersions in north Central FL Friday. Saturday, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Altamaha River in SE GA and south of Gainesville and Palatka in NE FL. Heat indices will reach 102-106 degrees each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 95 74 97 74 / 10 20 10 10 0 SSI 79 93 79 93 78 / 10 10 10 10 0 JAX 75 95 76 95 75 / 20 20 10 10 0 SGJ 76 92 75 92 75 / 30 10 10 10 0 GNV 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 20 10 10 0 OCF 73 95 73 95 73 / 10 20 10 20 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&