017 FXUS65 KABQ 242122 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 322 PM MDT Sun Jul 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity are expected for much of northern and central New Mexico for the next week. Abundant moisture and slow storm motions will continue to bring the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. As grounds become increasingly saturated, runoff will increase through the week. It will become increasingly important to stay away from low spots, arroyos and rivers to avoid the risk of being swept away. Temperatures will be lower this week than last week. High temperatures most days will be near to just below normal for late July. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Robust convection ongoing across the state will be slow to wane tonight as high pressure elongates over the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. An enhanced deformation zone over the forecast area will allow showers and thunderstorms to persist well past midnight. This will allow the risk for flash flooding across recent burn scars to persist well into the night. Overnight temperatures will be within a few degrees of the previous night's readings, trending above average. The song remains the same into Monday, with the high shifting further east. This will allow a shift to predominantly northerly flow, which will further enhance atmospheric deformation and stretching to support numerous to widespread storms in the afternoon. Convective initiation will favor the northern and western high terrain before spreading to adjacent highlands and valleys. Relaxed flow aloft will once again create slow and erratic storm motion, bringing the continued threat of flash flooding, especially across recent burn scars. The exception to this setup will be across the far eastern and southeastern plains, where dry air being shunted around the southern periphery of the high will limit convective development. An increase in dewpoints will let temperatures trend a few degrees cooler across the west, while the east sees moderated afternoon highs. Showers and thunderstorms will persist once again into the overnight hours, with overnight temperatures being within a few degrees of Sunday night's readings. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... An active monsoon period will continue Tuesday through Saturday. The upper level high will remain to the east of NM on Tuesday, while an upper level low/inverted trough takes shape over Sonora. All-in-all, northerly flow will set up a good traditional monsoonal tap over NM. This combined with one or more disturbances shifting northward across eastern AZ and/or western NM may allow for an increase in activity there. With PWATs around 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the north and west, plus slow storm motions, heavy rainfall will be possible. Storms will likely last well into the evening and overnight hours as the aforementioned disturbances shift over northern NM. This pattern changes little on Wednesday. A general weakness remains over NM, though another upper high will develop over the Great Basin. Thursday may be particularly active. While the pattern aloft doesn't change appreciably, a front slides into eastern NM, and backs up to the central mountain chain. Abundant moisture and upslope flow should enhance thunderstorm chances across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of eastern New Mexico, while western NM remains active with the inverted trough/weakness over AZ. New Mexico remains sandwiched between two high centers Friday into the weekend, thus an active period continues. 12/34 && .FIRE WEATHER... Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Storm motions will favor a northerly direction on Monday but further relaxed flow aloft after that will continue make these motions slow and erratic thereafter. This activity will bring the typical hazards to operations, including gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and lightning. In addition, heavy rainfall will be possible, maintaining the risk of burn scar flash flooding. 12 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Lingering debris clouds will result in a slow start to convective initiation today, however showers and tstorms will become scattered to numerous in the afternoon. As such, placed sh and ts across all terminals save for KTCC and KROW, where intruding dry air is expected to limit development. Additionally, given the position of high pressure aloft, less coverage is expected over the highlands of the central mts. Any direct hits will have the ability lower vsbys briefly to MVFR. Activity is anticipated to persist well into the night again, tapering off slowly around 25/06 and 25/09Z. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 89 64 88 / 70 50 50 60 Dulce........................... 55 85 54 84 / 70 80 60 80 Cuba............................ 58 84 58 84 / 80 60 60 70 Gallup.......................... 58 85 57 83 / 80 80 70 70 El Morro........................ 56 79 56 78 / 80 80 70 80 Grants.......................... 56 82 56 81 / 80 80 70 70 Quemado......................... 57 80 56 79 / 70 90 60 80 Magdalena....................... 61 82 60 82 / 70 60 60 60 Datil........................... 56 79 55 78 / 70 80 60 80 Reserve......................... 57 84 56 84 / 70 90 60 90 Glenwood........................ 63 86 62 86 / 70 80 60 80 Chama........................... 51 77 51 77 / 80 80 60 90 Los Alamos...................... 60 81 62 80 / 70 70 60 70 Pecos........................... 60 83 59 83 / 50 60 60 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 80 48 79 / 70 90 60 90 Red River....................... 47 74 46 73 / 80 90 60 90 Angel Fire...................... 46 75 44 74 / 70 80 60 90 Taos............................ 57 84 54 83 / 70 80 60 90 Mora............................ 54 80 54 80 / 60 60 50 70 Espanola........................ 62 90 63 90 / 60 60 60 70 Santa Fe........................ 62 86 62 85 / 60 60 60 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 87 59 87 / 60 60 60 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 88 68 88 / 60 50 60 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 91 68 90 / 60 40 60 50 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 93 66 92 / 60 40 60 50 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 91 67 90 / 60 50 60 50 Belen........................... 66 93 66 92 / 60 40 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 66 93 66 93 / 60 50 60 50 Bosque Farms.................... 62 91 62 91 / 60 40 50 40 Corrales........................ 67 93 67 93 / 60 50 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 92 63 91 / 60 40 50 40 Placitas........................ 67 88 66 89 / 60 50 60 60 Rio Rancho...................... 67 91 67 91 / 60 50 60 50 Socorro......................... 68 93 65 92 / 50 40 50 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 82 61 82 / 50 50 60 60 Tijeras......................... 62 85 62 86 / 50 50 60 60 Edgewood........................ 59 85 60 84 / 50 50 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 86 58 86 / 50 40 50 50 Clines Corners.................. 59 84 58 84 / 40 30 50 40 Mountainair..................... 59 85 59 85 / 40 40 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 61 86 60 86 / 40 50 50 40 Carrizozo....................... 65 88 64 89 / 30 50 40 40 Ruidoso......................... 58 80 56 82 / 30 60 40 40 Capulin......................... 58 84 58 86 / 70 40 40 80 Raton........................... 59 87 57 86 / 70 60 50 80 Springer........................ 60 90 59 89 / 60 50 40 80 Las Vegas....................... 59 85 57 84 / 50 50 50 60 Clayton......................... 66 93 65 93 / 50 5 30 40 Roy............................. 64 89 63 90 / 40 20 30 50 Conchas......................... 70 97 69 98 / 30 5 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 68 93 66 94 / 30 5 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 73 99 72 100 / 20 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 68 95 68 97 / 5 0 10 5 Portales........................ 69 97 69 99 / 5 0 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 71 97 70 99 / 10 0 10 10 Roswell......................... 72 99 71 99 / 10 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 65 91 64 92 / 20 40 30 20 Elk............................. 61 86 60 87 / 30 50 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ208-211-214-215. && $$