001 FXUS64 KAMA 181124 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 624 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 .AVIATION... 12z TAF Issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. Mostly clear skies with a few high clouds and light south winds of 5 to 15 knots. Rutt && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022/ DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday... Hot temperatures continue today with much of the area warming up to around 100-105 degrees, while Palo Duro Canyon will warm to near 107 degrees with a Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon and evening for the park. The upper high will be centered over west northwest New Mexico today with northwesterly flow aloft, while a surface trough will develop off the Rockies in eastern Colorado. No precipitation is expected today as conditions will remain too dry for any storm development. Heading into tomorrow, conditions are expected to be much hotter with almost the entire area above 105 degrees and areas across the eastern half of the combined Panhandles along with the Canadian River Valley and Palo Duro Canyon warming up to 110-115 degrees. One caveat in these hot temperatures will be a weak cold front late tomorrow morning into the afternoon, which may try to limit temperatures from getting above 105 across the northwest Panhandles. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for tomorrow afternoon and evening across the eastern half of the Panhandles, along with Palo Duro Canyon. Following the front tomorrow afternoon, there is a chance for some moisture to sneak into the western Panhandles off the mountains. The best timing for this would be late in the evening as the storms develop in the west and move eastward. The main threats with these showers and storms would be strong wind gusts as DCAPE values will be high due to very hot and dry temperatures in the boundary layer. At this time, any wind gusts are expected to be below severe limits. As the upper high continues to push westward through the week, this will open up the chance for moisture in the west through Friday with the development of showers and storms off the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado during the afternoon hours. Any weak disturbances in the flow aloft will help to sustain the storms into the Panhandles, but overall chances remain low and the main threats again would be strong wind gusts. High temperatures will continue to be warm , but generally remain near or slightly below 100 degrees through the back end of the week. Heading into the weekend, models have the high becoming more elongated over the southern CONUS with a slight warming in temperatures to back above 100 across much of the Panhandles. This will bring weak and variable flow aloft with much of the monsoonal moisture remaining west of the Panhandles. There is a slight chance some of the moisture may creep into the far west northwest Panhandles, but this will likely depend on the track of the upper high by the weekend. Rutt && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Armstrong-Carson-Collingsworth-Donley-Gray- Hansford-Hemphill-Hutchinson-Lipscomb-Ochiltree-Palo Duro Canyon-Roberts-Wheeler. Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Palo Duro Canyon. OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for Beaver-Texas. && $$ 23/23