649 FXUS62 KMHX 161930 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime isolated to scattered thunderstorms will persist through much of the coming week as area will be between inland troughing and high pressure well offshore. A deteriorating cold front could approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 330 PM Sat...Sea breeze has been fairly quiet this afternoon, with most convection occurring across the Piedmont with the central NC Piedmont trough. Similar to yesterday evening, some storms may sneak into ENC, particularly the Coastal Plain, from the west early this evening, but should exhibit a weakening trend by mid evening, so most of the area should be dry by late evening. Later tonight, showers and a few storms may develop once again over the coastal waters and make their way towards the Crystal Coast and OBX by sunrise, so have some low end chc pops here very late tonight. Warm and muggy overnight lows generally from 70-75 once again. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sat...Fairly benign pattern continues once again, as main focus for convection should remain W and N of ENC. However, aforementioned coastal showers or storms may skirt the coastal counties early in the morning, and then a few isolated to widely sct storms may form for the interior zones in the afternoon, though most of the FA will experience dry albeit warm and humid conditions on Sunday. Highs expected in the 85-90 degree range. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Sat...A transition back to a more seasonable pattern will occur early next week, with a couple of relatively dry days possible mid-week. An upper shortwave could bring a return to a more active pattern later next week. Sunday night through Tuesday...PWAT expectations for Sunday into early next week have trended down a bit over the last several global model cycles, with 1.75 inch values now generally expected, which is closer to normal for this time of year. Weak troughing aloft will keep POPs near to slightly above normal, but no pronounced features will keep a mainly diurnal trend to the POP forecast each day. Temps within a couple degrees of normal each day, with afternoon thunderstorm coverage providing the main day-to-day variability. Heavy rainfall will remain a concern in the strongest storms over the next couple of days, but the lack of significant forcing will keep any flooding threat localized. Wednesday through late next week...Bermuda high pressure ridges to our south Wednesday, with low level flow developing more of a westerly component, likely bringing the driest day of the period Wednesday given the limited convergence along the resultant sea breeze and more continental airmass. This would also bring above normal temps. Then, late week, a cold front associated with low pressure lifting across eastern Canada will slide toward the area, increasing the low level gradient and moisture convergence, with another active period likely. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/... As of 2 PM Sat...Fairly benign conditions for the terminals this afternoon. A storm may approach KISO and KPGV later this afternoon and early evening from the west, but confidence low attm so have just a VCTS mention. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions expected for the rest of tonight into Sun. There may be a period of IFR at KOAJ once again, though signal not quite as strong for this, so have only a sct IFR deck late tonight/early Sun. Winds light through the period. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sat...We return to a more summerlike pattern through much of the coming week, with afternoon thunderstorms bringing the primary threat for temporary flight restrictions, and patchy early morning fog also possible for locations that remain clear and calm on any given night. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Sun/... As of 330 PM Sat...Bermuda high keeps S to SWrly flow 5-15 kts through the forecast period with seas lingering around 2-3 ft through tonight. Some additional showers and storms may develop overnight into early tomorrow again, but coverage is not expected to be as widespread, and mainly affect the srn/ctrl waters into Pamlico Sound. Some inc wind swell into the afternoon around 15 kt may bring seas up to 4 ft late in the afternoon. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 4 AM Sat...Troughing persists inland with Bermuda high pressure remaining in place through much of the next week. Moderate SW flow prevails through Monday morning. Then, Tuesday through the middle of next week, surface ridging builds in a bit stronger, with warmer temps inland leading to stronger afternoon sea breezes, and the potential for nocturnal jetting along the coast at night bringing near SCA conditions for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound each late afternoon through evening. Mainly 2-4 ft seas through the weekend in seasonable background SE medium period swell, with increasing windswell bringing seas to 3-5 ft, and potentially occasional 6 ft seas later Monday through the middle of next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...RM/CB AVIATION...TL/CB MARINE...TL/CB