347 FXUS63 KMPX 160758 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Key Messages: - Areas of fog possible this morning, mainly east of I-35. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible primarily for western Minnesota this this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is currently expected. - Warmer temperatures arrive on Sunday and linger for most of next week. A cool front cools us down slightly and introduces another shot at isolated showers and storms late Monday into early Tuesday. Today through Sunday... Areas of low clouds and perhaps even some fog are present on nighttime microphysics satellite imagery, with a few areas of denser fog possible mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor this morning. Winds are extremely light across the area, coupled with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s at our current dew points, which should ensure further fog growth. A few higher clouds are present alongside virga in western Minnesota stemming from a few showers in the Dakotas, however we will likely remain dry with our stable air winning out this morning. Short range and CAM ensembles are bullish in producing a shortwave ejecting from the broad zonal ridge across the upper midwest, bringing a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Right now our shear is the primary limiting factor in allowing storms to properly strengthen, which should keep our threat to an isolated hail/wind threat alongside heavy rain with most storms failing to strengthen. This will unfortunately be another one of those hit or miss situations when it comes to the rainfall, so our 20 to 30 PoPs mean a select few might end up hitting the jackpot and getting some rain while most of us remain dry. Winds look to remain light for the day and also into Sunday as upper level ridging continues, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today increasing to the low 90s in the Twin Cities to mid 90s in western Minnesota on Sunday. Monday through early Saturday... Upper level ridging looks to continue into Monday and not surprisingly our stretch of hot weather with it. High temperatures look to peak on Monday with low 90s in WI to mid 90s in the Twin Cities to near 100 in western Minnesota. A weak cold front will bring another chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, right now looking to primarily affect central Minnesota, with the front being significantly weaker as you head south. The front will also do little to actually cool us down with low to mid 90s for highs on Tuesday as well. The upper level ridge temporarily breaks down with our sole day of 80s high temperatures on Wednesday before another ridge builds into the area into the weekend and highs return to the 90s. There will likely be some smaller chances for showers and thunderstorms given the heat and instability resulting from it, however we will have general subsidence or weak forcing which will make it hard to pinpoint more than 24 hours out. None of our heat currently looks to be record breaking, but it will be hot enough both during the day and at night for a good 5-7 day stretch such that we will be feeling the burn next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Main headache for tonight is trying to figure out where patchy fog will develop, a headache made worse by the incoming cirrus and patches of clouds developing up around 4500 feet, but of which will act as a hindrance to fog formation given current dewpoints at 70 degrees, beefed up fog mention for STC and MKT and continued as is for EAU. Later Saturday, a shortwave arrives aloft which will result in the development of iso-sct shra/tsra. Given the track of the shortwave out of NoDak into central MN, AXN/STC look to have the best chance at seeing convection. Wind shear will be weak, so these will be pulse type storms and storms will likely evolve on the movement of outflow boundaries from earlier convection. KMSP...Given how high dewpoints are, can't rule out some haze/fog in the morning, though climatology would say fog has a pretty low probability of occurring. There is potential for seeing some showers late afternoon/early evening, but that risk will be dependent on how things evolve along outflow boundaries. Right now, the risk of convection is still too low to include in the TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. Tue...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...MPG