966 FXUS61 KBGM 120455 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1255 AM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing clouds tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms move into the Finger Lakes late tonight with additional showers and thunderstorms developing area wide Tuesday afternoon. Cooler weather expected wednesday into the end of the week with a few isolated afternoon showers possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 PM Update... Rain showers are currently moving north of the CWA, with a few showers entering the northern periphery of the Finger Lakes counties. Model guidance has not handled the convection over the last few hours very well with several CAMs far apart in their solutions. A shortwave moving across the area will be the main driver of the showers tonight, and should keep most of the activity north of the Southern Tier. PoPs were adjusted for tomorrow as well based on the latest guidance, even though the current CAMs are not handling the evolving precipitation well. Thinking is overnight rain and additional clouds across the area is going to stunt the instability growth tomorrow for areas west of I-81 and north of I-86. Peak heating combined with the frontal passage tomorrow mid to late afternoon will generate storms across the Catskills and NEPA. The rest of the forecast remains on track. 930 PM Update... The Lake Ontario lake breeze made it to the Finger Lakes region prior to sunset and quickly brought down temperatures. Most of the region is now in the 70s though there are still some low 80s out there. Hourly temps were adjusted once again, mainly due to forecasted temps being too high compared to latest observations. The rest of the forecast was doing well with only minor changes needed. Looking at the 00z runs of the HRRR and RAP, both are trending a little slower with the morning round of showers/storms, keeping the region mostly dry until around 09 to 10z. The 00z NAM is not in yet but we will have to see if that will trend later as well. For now, left PoPs as is, but future updates may need to slow down the arrival of this first round of showers and storms. Even with what guidance has come in so far, the best chances continue to be across CNY. 600 PM Update... Not much to change in the forecast for this evening. The warm spots this afternoon were in the northern Finger Lakes while conditions were more pleasant from the Twin Tiers and southward. Hourly temps and dewpts were touched up for this update. Winds also needed some minor adjustments to better match obs. 310 PM Update... With mostly sunny skies and dry soils, temperatures have gotten into the mid to upper 80s for most locations this afternoon with a few 90s across the Finger Lakes. Clouds increase tonight as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes region. An MCS is making its way across Michigan this afternoon though the thunderstorm activity is waning. Even though the complex will likely dissipate before reaching the region, a vort max that is generated by the MCS will be able to spark off some showers and thunderstorms as it gets to the east side of Lake Erie. Forecast soundings indicate that a deep layer of dry air near the surface across most of CNY into NEPA will limit the coverage of the storms tonight with the Finger Lakes having the best chance of seeing the precipitation with a shallower layer of dry air. Tomorrow, a cold front approaches from the west with falling 500 mb heights. The EML that we have been watching the last few days looks like it will be mostly mixed out by the time it gets here. The MCS currently occurring is helping to mix out the EML. Even though most places will be dry tomorrow morning, the few showers and associated clouds limits day time heating with models trending lower with overall instability tomorrow, especially west of I81 and north of I86. More sunshine in NEPA into the Catskill region will still allow for more instability with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Strong shear of 45 to 50 knots with strait hodographs indicate that at least a few of the thunderstorms that develop will contain strong to damaging wind gust. SPC has moved the slight risk a little farther to the SE relative to yesterdays update. Once the cold front is through, CAA drops 850 mb temperatures down to about 10C with low level stratus post frontal. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible mainly across higher elevations and ridge tops. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 240 PM Update.. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will linger across the region on Wednesday as upper level trough will be centered over the Northeast U.S. Showers and storms will be mostly diurnally driven and with the loss of heating, shower activity will diminish after sunset Wednesday evening. Although the upper trough remains in our vicinity on Thursday, high pressure starts building into the region. Forecast soundings are showing very dry air aloft, so have taken out shower chances for now. Dry conditions can be expected through the remainder of the period as dry high pressure continues to build in from Canada Thursday night into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 350 PM Update... High pressure will dominate the weather through most of the weekend. Models start to diverge in solutions by Sunday with a warm air advection pattern and upper trough pushing in from the west. GFS is most robust with shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday into Monday, while the Euro keeps the area mostly dry through the weekend with showers arriving on Monday. For now, stuck with the National Blend of Models solution due to the uncertainty, which spreads out shower chances Sunday and through the day Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the night, and into the morning hours, though a few showers and perhaps the odd thunderstorm will be possible as a shortwave trough approaches the region. Showers would most likely be north of the NY/PA line, and between 08-13Z from west to east. There's a low probability of thunder at ITH and ELM as well, but too low to mention in the TAFs. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon, with the best chances being after 21Z at AVP. Chances are high enough there to warrant a VCTS, but any restrictions of MVFR or worse would be brief. Outlook... Tuesday Night...Scattered TSRA/SHRA with occasional restrictions possible before 06Z Wed, patchy fog possible through Wed AM. Wednesday and Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, but brief restrictions in showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening. Thursday through Saturday...VFR expected at this time. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/HLC NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/JTC SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...AJG/MPH