445 FXUS64 KBMX 101854 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 154 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 .UPDATE... Midday Update and 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0110 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ The frontal boundary currently draped over the northern counties will slowly move southward through the afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along this front where the best source of lift will cause convection to form. Instabilities will be between 2000 and 2500 and DCAPE around 1300 J/kg. A lot of dry air is present in the mid and upper levels...and PW values are about 75th percentile for this time of year with 1.8 inches compared to 2.2 inches yesterday. Winds will be between 30 and 40 kts in the mid and upper levels. Not expecting anything strong to severe to form today. Otherwise...scattered convection will also form in areas with diurnal heating ahead of this front in the southern half of the state. This scattered convection...along with the storms along the boundary will continue moving towards the south through the afternoon and evening with the boundary reaching I85 between 10 pm and 12 am. The front will weaken overnight and settle over the coastal areas...where a low pressure tries to develop from that in the days ahead. Overnight...activity weakens with most rain expected to be south and east of the forecast area shortly after midnight. Depending on how late showers form in the far southeastern counties and how much low level moisture will remain in the early morning...fog development is possible. Monday...southerly low and mid level flow will set up...with moisture and warm air advection allowing diurnal showers and thunderstorms to form again...beginning around midday and lasting through the evening. The greatest chance for this convection will be south of I20...where the forcing will be strongest closer to the coast. Instabilities will be between 2000 and 3000 J/kg with a very light wind profile. A few storms may become strong with enough lift...though severe storms will be less likely. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s. Tonight...low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Monday...high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. 24 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0301 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ Tuesday through Saturday. Gulf Coast convection is still progged by medium range guidance on Tuesday. This is mainly in association with the lingering surface front and associated disturbance aloft that gets cut off from the jet stream. This disturbance should slowly meander westward across the northern Gulf, causing periods of thunderstorms along the coastline/I-10 corridor. It's still unclear how this system may impact Central Alabama as guidance is wavering on bringing it into the area on Wednesday in latest runs. Either way, tropical boundary layer conditions are forecast to return to the area by Wednesday as southerly 0-1 km flow is expected. This will occur as a trough and associated cold front swing through the OH and TN Valleys. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected that afternoon and evening. Thereafter, I continue to place best diurnally-driven rain chances where best moisture quality resides. This should be areas south and east. With deep layer ridging now well established across the West, forecast temperatures should favor at or slightly below average through the end of the period. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Scattered diurnal convection is possible through the afternoon and evening...and along a frontal boundary that will move to the south through around midnight. Behind this front...northerly flow and drier conditions will keep the area rain free. Fog development is possible in the early morning...though left mention out of TAF due to uncertainty in coverage and intensity. Monday...showers and thunderstorms will develop again in the late morning and lasting through the afternoon. The best chance for development will be around KMGM and KTOI. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Veering winds will occur today as a front is passing through the area. In most cases, surface and transport winds should be out of the north or northwest at 5-10 mph. Slightly drier air will mean less rain chances today, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are still forecast for areas south of I-59. Pretty routine summer weather conditions are expected for the next several days with diurnal rain chances and light 20 ft winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 86 71 91 72 / 20 20 10 20 20 Anniston 71 86 72 90 72 / 30 20 10 30 20 Birmingham 72 88 73 91 73 / 10 20 10 30 20 Tuscaloosa 74 90 74 92 73 / 10 30 10 30 20 Calera 72 87 73 89 73 / 20 30 10 40 20 Auburn 71 84 72 87 73 / 50 60 20 60 20 Montgomery 73 88 74 91 74 / 40 60 20 60 20 Troy 72 85 72 88 73 / 50 70 30 70 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$