692 FXUS64 KTSA 101634 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1134 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 1024 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 A fairly quiet and relatively pleasant day is in progress for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Low clouds continue to affect parts of western Arkansas and immediately adjacent portions of eastern Oklahoma, and the only changes made to the going forecast were to account for these. Expect some decrease in sky coverage into the afternoon, with mostly clear skies arriving this evening. Forecast highs look good and will be left alone. Parts of far southeast Oklahoma will flirt with heat advisory criteria and will keep an eye on trends down there into the afternoon. Get out and enjoy these conditions if you can, as some heat comes back tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Ridge of high pressure remains in place over the region Monday with the mid level thermal axis shifting a further to the east. In response...slightly warmer temps are forecast Monday afternoon compared to today. These conditions could create heat index values reaching advisory criteria over parts of Northeast Oklahoma. Monday afternoon into Tuesday...the eastern portion of the ridge begins to flatten out while the western portion amplifies in response to a wave dropping southeast out of the Northern Plains. A trailing cold front to the wave is progged to push south southeast through the Central Plains Monday and reach into the CWA Tuesday morning in a weakening state. As the boundary makes its way through the CWA Tuesday...latest model cross sections indicate a weakening of frontogenetic forcing the further southward the boundary pushes. However...there looks to be a narrow axis of marginal instability and low level moisture pooling along the boundary during the day Tuesday. This may be enough for an isolated shower and or thunderstorm to develop with max heating...though with such limited forecast coverage have decided to carry PoPs just below mentionable criteria Tuesday. Behind the boundary...a return of northerly winds transporting a drier airmass into the region will help high temps Tuesday to be in the mid 90s. Meanwhile...south of the boundary...high temps in the upper 90s to around 103 deg and heat index values of 105+ deg are possible along/south of Interstate 40 Tuesday. The drier airmass is forecast to spread over the region with heat index values forecast below advisory criteria Wednesday and Thursday. The break in the heat and humidity looks to be short-lived as the ridge of high pressure expands over the region late week and into next weekend. This will allow for triple digit temps and higher humidity to return to the much of the CWA. Unfortunately...no significant precipitation chances are forecast through the next 7-day period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. FEW-SCT low clouds will be possible at all terminals primarily this afternoon. Winds will shift from a largely easterly direction today to become more southerly at most sites tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 96 73 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 97 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 96 70 100 72 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 95 66 100 71 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 94 65 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 92 67 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 96 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 93 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 F10 95 70 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...22