411 FXUS63 KDDC 091855 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 ...Updated Long Term... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Intense subtropical midlevel anticyclone, about 600 dm strong, was centered over south central Colorado at midday, with infrared satellite imagery confirming strong subsidence over SW KS with a clear sky. Light southeast winds will continue this afternoon, and with 850 mb thermal fields little changed from Friday, temperatures will mirror those of yesterday in the mid to upper 90s. A clear sky will continue tonight with light winds trending more southerly through sunrise. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of 70 at all locations sunrise Sunday. Triple digit heat will return Sunday, as the core of the upper ridge migrates eastward onto the high plains, and 850 mb temperatures show a net warming of about +4 degrees. Improved mixing with south winds gusting to near 30 mph will facilitate the heat, with afternoon temperatures of 100-104 common. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s at sunrise will mix down to the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon; this is expected to be enough to keep heat indices below 105 at most locations, and a heat advisory is not expected to be required. That said, the hottest air temperatures of 104-105 are expected across the northern zones Sunday afternoon, from about Scott City to the I-70 corridor of Trego/Ellis counties. Record highs this time of year are very hard to beat (July 10 at DDC is 108 set in the terribly hot year of 2011) and most are expected to remain safe. Intense subsidence beneath the high will keep pops at zero and sky cover near zero. Sunday night, the boundary layer will remain very warm, with improved mixing associated with a modest low level jet ahead of a cold front approaching from Nebraska. The cold front is progged to be near Goodland 7 am Monday, with all locations holding in the lower to mid 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Strong mid level ridge will dampen significantly Monday, in response to a strong shortwave near the western Great Lakes by late afternoon. Associated cold front passage is expected daylight Monday, with southwest winds in the morning becoming northeasterly and gusty by late afternoon. The exact timing of this boundary in relation to the daily heating cycle will determine exactly how hot Monday afternoon will be. Current thinking is far northern zones will be reduced to the mid 90s Monday afternoon, but prefrontal SWly compression may hold on well into the afternoon adjacent to Oklahoma, as shown by 12z NAM/GFS. Continued to show max temperatures in the 105-107 range in the favored Red Hills southeast of Dodge City. In between, the forecast will call for 102 at Dodge City, before temperatures plateau/slowly fall during the afternoon. The frontal boundary itself is expected to come through dry. Monday night and early Tuesday, the various models continue to hint at a modest potential for at least isolated convective development amid the post frontal environment. 12z GFS depicts an MCS over SE Colorado Monday evening, then weakening it as it enters SW KS Monday night. 12z NAM also has a MCS signature over SE Colorado Monday evening, but 12z ECMWF is significantly drier. NBM pops favoring the western zones Monday evening were accepted for now, but much of this activity may end up remaining in Colorado. Some storms adjacent to Colorado may produce strong outflow winds, per SPC's Day 3 marginal severe probabilities. Shear will be weak to modest beneath ridging aloft with weak/disorganized flow, favoring multicell clusters. A welcome, albeit brief, break from the heat is expected Tuesday, with model consensus holding most locations in the 80s Tuesday afternoon. The heat will rebuild rapidly Wednesday through Saturday, with progressively hotter afternoons as the midlevel ridge axis strengthens just to the west of SW KS. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sat Jul 9 2022 Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Light SE winds will prevail this afternoon and tonight, generally less than 10 kts. After 15z Sun, south winds will increase at all airports, gusting to near 25 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 97 70 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 98 70 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 95 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 96 70 102 71 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 96 69 103 73 / 0 0 0 10 P28 95 68 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner