227 FXUS61 KRLX 090015 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 815 PM EDT Fri Jul 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms chances continue tonight with rain activity ending slowly from the west on Saturday. High pressure in control Monday with another cold front middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 810 PM Friday... Storm activity has diminished this evening, though showers continue to progress east across the mountains. Additional scattered showers are now moving into southeast OH and northeast KY as an upper trough approaches. Have updated PoPs and temperatures to better reflect current observations. Otherwise, the forecast is generally on track for tonight. As of 220 PM Friday... Complicated forecast is shaping up for tonight. Strengthening convective line from remnant MCV was progressing east southeastward into our western counties as of 18Z. Hard to discern where the old frontal boundary was located but given the northward extent of convection, it appears to have made into northeast KY and through the Coal Fields. The primary hazard with this as it moves through the southern portion of the forecast area would be gust winds to 40kts. I cannot rule out a localized damaging wind threat across the Coal Fields with this. In its wake, the atmosphere stabilizes a bit with an hour or two of lingering rain. Forecast then focuses on the interaction with advancing upper level trof and surface front to form an axis of heavy rain tonight. Mid level flow will be flattening with continued PVA into the region, amid weakening corfidi vectors that will become parallel to the mean flow. This suggests a training scenario overnight along the frontal boundary. With PWATS 2 to as high as 2.25 inches, a localized flash flood threat will increase along that corridor of juxtaposition. Overall position of axis of highest QPF remains in question, though, with the frontal boundary subject to mesoscale influences. There does seem to be converging signals across southeast OH and central WV for placement of this axis/front which aligns with current WPC forecast. QPF of 1 to 2 inches can be expected where this axis lies, with localized amounts to 3 inches possible. Across southeast OH and central WV, wet antecedent conditions exist with some high streamflow anomalies along with somewhat low 1 to 3 hr FFG. After collaboration with surrounding offices, elected to hold off on a watch, primarily due to what may be a narrow axis whose eventual placement remains uncertain. In addition, much of the better instability should remain south of the area overnight which may limit rainfall rates a bit, despite the potential for training. Upper level flow amplifies a bit late tonight and Saturday morning which will provide better diffluence aloft to keep banded rain in the forecast. The sharpening trof will, however, serve to give some momentum of the front southward. This will gradually shift everything south of the area in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM Friday... Going to be closing out Saturday with a few showers and storms in the Eastern side of the CWA. Heavy downpours will be the main threat with these. For Sunday, going to be monitoring a shortwave that the models differ on timing and position. This could lead to a stray shower or storm for Sunday afternoon in central wv. A cold front moves in Sunday evening bringing with it drier weather for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Friday... As moisture returns on Tuesday, thunderstorms can not be ruled out for the afternoon. Another cold front will enter our area late Wednesday bringing with it the chance for unsettled weather once again. Models are starting to agree on the timing of the front better today compared to yesterday. After the front exits Wednesday night/Thursday morning we can expect to see more seasonable and drier weather to start next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 810 PM Friday... A few showers continue along the mountains this evening, and additional showers/storms are expected to cross through the area tonight through Saturday morning. A combination of low ceilings and reduced visibilities due to mist or showers/storms are expected to bring MVFR to IFR conditions to most sites overnight and into the morning. Conditions should then begin to improve towards the end of the TAF period. Winds should remain under 10KTs, though stronger gusts may occur within storms. Variable winds are expected to take on a northeasterly direction during the day Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of sub-VFR conditions may vary depending on coverage of showers/storms tonight into Saturday. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M M H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M L M M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/KH/99 NEAR TERM...30/JLB SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JLB