766 
FXUS64 KLUB 060906
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
406 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...
Early morning satellite and radar imagery revealed a small MCV over 
the far southwest TX Panhandle drifting NE complete with some 
showers. This feature is embedded within a weak and unsettled S-SW 
flow regime and is on track to depart north of our area around 
daybreak. In its wake, an axis of PWATs up to 1.5" (about 130% of 
normal) on the Caprock should help give rise to our next round of 
deep convection this afternoon. The HREF mean favors the brunt of 
this activity farther north today across the TX Panhandle coincident 
with a modest H7 trough axis, although modest CIN farther south 
should allow convective temps to be met for at least isolated 
showers and storms. Slow cell motions once again would support some 
spotty downpours while tall inverted-v profiles open the door to a 
few microbursts.

Barring any MCVs that can sustain convection overnight, activity 
should wane considerably after sunset. Temp-wise, highs should fare 
a few degrees cooler on the Caprock today than yesterday given more 
convective cloud debris to start, while lows tonight round out quite 
mild once again.

.LONG TERM...
The long-term generally remains on track with hot temperatures 
through at least Friday and occasional chances of showers and 
thunderstorms through the end of the period. 

The long-term will begin on Thursday,  with an upper high stretched 
across the southeastern and south-central CONUS, an upper shortwave 
trough moving across the central Plains, an upper low over the Gulf 
of Alaska, and an upper trough/low over southeastern Canada / 
northeastern CONUS. The shortwave trough moving across the central 
CONUS will push a weak "cold" front through the Texas Panhandle 
Thursday afternoon, which will bring a potential of precipitation 
mainly to areas on the Caprock. The upper high will inch west on 
Friday, as the upper low/trough over the northeast CONUS pushes 
slightly south, decreasing the eastward extent of showers and 
thunderstorms and bringing hotter temperatures. The forecast becomes 
a little more complex going into the weekend and through early next 
week, as models, and ensembles, do not agree on how far west the 
upper high will move. If the upper high remains directly over the 
area, it will result in hot and dry conditions. Though, if the upper 
high moves to our west, it will bring cooler temperatures and a 
transition to northwesterly flow aloft, which will be more favorable 
for precipitation. For now, we will keep the NBM values, which 
incorporates a little of both scenarios. GKendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

93/10