533 FXUS65 KABQ 042017 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 217 PM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next several days with western and central New Mexico being most favored for the greatest storm coverage. Gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be able to accompany any thunderstorm. Storm coverage trends down starting Thursday and into the weekend as the area of high pressure builds near the Four Corners. Drier air filtering into the area as a result will lead to lesser storm coverage, however, the threat for burn scar flash flooding will continue thanks to slower storm motions. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... Storms have erupted over the west central, south central and southwest higher terrain initially as models predicted and have been making steady progress expanding to the north and east. Compared to the last few days though, cells haven't been quite as vigorous so far this afternoon. Still, LAPS indicates increasing instability over the Gila region, and localized flash flooding is still possible as peak afternoon heating hasn't yet been realized. Latest model runs also still hint at an outflow boundary from the west central/southwest convection tracking to the north and east which could trigger more showers and storms but vary in timing and strength. Water vapor imagery shows a large area of drier air to our south and southwest poised to advect into New Mexico on Tuesday. Forecast models have picked up on this and indicate less activity over southwest/west central New Mexico into portions of central and northeast New Mexico as this drier air tracks over the region. This appears to be short lived as another surge is depicted into southern and western New Mexico late Tuesday night. High temperatures Tuesday will be below normal west and central and within a few degrees of normal far eastern plains. Lows will remain above normal. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... By Wednesday, the H5 high remains centered over the SE US, and southerly flow aloft keeps the monsoonal moisture plume directly over NM. There's still evidence of drier air (particularly on the deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF) filtering into northern NM with model guidance showing PWATs trending down in this area to around 0.5" to 0.75". The ECMWF goes one step further with also showing that drier air filtering in from the west. Meanwhile, the deterministic runs of the NAM and Canadian show little to no drying. Regardless, with the moisture plume directly overhead, another day of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is in store with perhaps lesser coverage across the northern mountains. The upper-level pattern becomes messier on Thursday as the H5 high begins to become more disorganized. As a result, there are multiple solutions amongst the models in where it will be on Thursday. Some keep the high over the SE while others begin to transition it westward over TX. Ensemble guidance seems to lean more towards this high somewhere over TX which in turn begins to weaken the moisture plume. Storm coverage begins to trend down starting Thursday, but the threat for burn scar flash flooding will continue as weaker flow aloft translates to slower storm motions. A storm setting up in the wrong place will still have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. By Friday and into the weekend, the H5 high then reorganizes over the Four Corners with guidance strengthening it to about 598dam to 600dam. Decreasing moisture values and this strong upper-level high will aid in suppressing convection. Thus, look for lesser storm coverage this weekend, but with slow and erratic storm motions, the threat for burn scar flash flooding continues. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... At least in the shorter term, the plume of monsoon moisture for the most part will remain stretched from southwest to northeast over NM. Cell motion for the rest of the afternoon and evening will generally be to the north and northeast over western NM while over northern NM, to the northeast and east. The focus for showers and storms will vary a bit from day to day, with a downtrend expected Tuesday over the southwest/west central and into central and northeast areas as some drier air temporarily moves over the region. An uptick in activity may occur Wednesday. Forecast models vary regarding how quickly a pattern change will develop, but a strong upper high may relocate to the central and southern Rockies by the upcoming weekend. This would bring warmer temperatures and fewer showers and storms overall staying closer to the mountains. Storm motions would be slower and more erratic, which could still lead to localized flash flooding. High temperatures would be closer to or even a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Plume of moisture continues to be stretched from sw to ne over NM with upper high center over ern TX. Sfc lee trough. Mts occasionally obscured in sct-nmrs showers and tstms favoring sw to west central and south central NM aft 19Z where lcl MVFR to brief IFR cigs/vsbys in rain and small hail as well as outflows producing gusts to 35kt are most likely. Cells to move to the nne over wrn NM and to the ne or e over nrn NM. Outflow boundaries may reach the KABQ and KSAF area by or aft 05/00Z as at least isold convection migrates into the ern plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 86 60 89 / 20 20 10 20 Dulce........................... 54 83 50 84 / 20 50 20 30 Cuba............................ 56 80 56 83 / 40 40 20 20 Gallup.......................... 57 83 54 85 / 30 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 55 80 52 79 / 50 20 20 30 Grants.......................... 56 82 53 81 / 50 20 20 30 Quemado......................... 56 81 54 80 / 60 20 20 40 Magdalena....................... 60 81 60 80 / 60 30 30 40 Datil........................... 55 79 54 78 / 60 30 20 50 Reserve......................... 57 86 56 84 / 50 20 20 40 Glenwood........................ 63 90 61 87 / 40 20 20 40 Chama........................... 50 77 48 78 / 20 60 30 40 Los Alamos...................... 58 80 58 81 / 40 50 30 30 Pecos........................... 57 81 56 83 / 30 50 20 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 80 49 80 / 20 60 30 50 Red River....................... 48 72 45 74 / 30 60 30 50 Angel Fire...................... 46 74 45 75 / 30 60 30 50 Taos............................ 54 82 53 84 / 20 50 20 40 Mora............................ 53 79 53 80 / 30 40 30 40 Espanola........................ 54 86 53 87 / 30 40 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 58 82 58 83 / 30 40 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 85 58 86 / 30 40 20 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 85 63 87 / 30 30 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 87 65 88 / 30 20 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 89 59 91 / 30 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 88 65 89 / 30 30 20 20 Belen........................... 66 90 66 90 / 30 20 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 63 89 62 91 / 30 30 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 62 89 62 90 / 30 20 20 30 Corrales........................ 64 89 64 91 / 30 30 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 64 89 64 90 / 30 20 20 30 Placitas........................ 62 85 61 87 / 30 30 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 65 87 64 89 / 30 30 20 20 Socorro......................... 65 90 67 90 / 40 20 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 80 59 81 / 30 30 30 30 Tijeras......................... 60 83 60 85 / 30 20 30 30 Edgewood........................ 58 82 58 83 / 30 30 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 84 57 85 / 30 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 57 81 57 82 / 30 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 59 82 59 82 / 40 30 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 60 83 60 84 / 40 30 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 64 85 63 84 / 40 40 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 58 76 57 77 / 40 50 30 50 Capulin......................... 58 84 57 83 / 20 40 20 40 Raton........................... 57 88 57 88 / 20 40 20 40 Springer........................ 56 87 56 89 / 20 30 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 56 82 56 84 / 20 30 20 30 Clayton......................... 66 94 65 92 / 10 20 20 30 Roy............................. 61 90 60 88 / 20 30 20 30 Conchas......................... 65 91 63 95 / 10 30 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 67 92 65 92 / 20 30 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 72 98 70 97 / 10 20 30 20 Clovis.......................... 68 93 67 93 / 10 30 40 20 Portales........................ 69 94 68 94 / 10 30 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 70 95 69 95 / 20 30 30 20 Roswell......................... 71 97 70 96 / 20 40 30 30 Picacho......................... 64 88 64 87 / 40 60 40 40 Elk............................. 61 83 60 82 / 50 60 50 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ206>208-226-241. && $$