956 FXUS65 KABQ 040914 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 314 AM MDT Mon Jul 4 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Afternoon storms will again favor the the western two-thirds of NM this Fourth of July holiday, persisting well into the evening. Outdoor celebrations will need to watch for the threat of cloud-to- ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall impacting plans. Lesser storm coverage is expected as one heads east toward the TX border. Afternoon and evening storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday with a persistent monsoonal plume. However, there are some signs storm coverage will be less over northern NM Wednesday due to dry air intrusion. Storm coverage steadily trends down by the end of the week into next weekend as a strong upper high builds over CO. However, slow storm motions will still allow for the less scattered storms to produce locally heavy rainfall amounts. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... The latest water vapor shows a complex upper level pattern in place from west TX across NM and into northern Mexico. A very dry mid and upper level airmass remains in place over AZ and UT with a 50 kt upper jet axis just north of the Four Corners. The speed max will help draw a weak warm core upper wave from northern Sonora into western NM today and tonight. Model PW values are still progged to rise to near 1.2" today across central and western NM with SHRA/TS developing from south to north btwn 11am and 2pm. Linear convective segments aligned from SSW to NNE will drift slowly NW and train over the same areas today with anchoring possible on terrain features. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued for parts of western NM where this additional rainfall will elevate the risk for flooding after several days of moderate to heavy rain. The Sacramento/Capitan Mts will also be favored for heavy rainfall today. A second focus area for storms may also impact the central mt chain however confidence on coverage is too low for a watch at this time. Drier air is expected to advance eastward into western NM Tuesday in the wake of the upper wave from Sonora along with help from the dry airmass over AZ. PW values are progged to fall to near 0.80" from the RGV westward while values surge to near 1.4" across eastern NM. This pattern will be favorable for a downtick in storm coverage across western NM however the area in between may see more vigorous convection with very heavy rainfall and even a few strong storms over east central and southeast NM. LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... The long term period begins Tuesday night with a lessening pressure gradient aloft between a 593dm H5 higher over AR and 561dm H5 low off the PacNW coast. This keeps a tap of monsoonal moisture squarely located over NM for Wednesday. The quirk however is how a dry upper low, currently on WV imagery over the southern Baja Peninsula gets lifted northward into the desert southwest. The GFS in particular brings this slug of drier air into western NM and the Four Corners area Wednesday afternoon. This much drier air, modeled to produce PWATs in the 0.50” to 0.60” range shuts down deeper convection over northern NM in the operational GFS solution. The NAM12 and ECMWF are not as pessimistic, keeping the drier air further west into AZ/UT. Have thus only nudged PoPs down to scattered coverage over the northern mountains Wednesday afternoon. Thursday sees the upper high in the middle of its transition and reformation, producing weak steering flow over the state. Thursday’s crop of storms will be slow and move erratically, allowing for localized heavy rainfall to still threaten flash flooding. Outflow boundary collisions also look to get the eastern plains more in the action for evening storms Wednesday and Thursday as well, while the drier air looks to persist over the Four Corners area. Friday sees a dominant 597-600dm H5 high coalesce over southern CO. Lesser storm coverage will result, but slow storm motions will still allow for a localized flash flooding threat wherever heavy rain exists. This upper high looks to persist into next weekend, being shunted south by a passing upper trough over the Canadian Rockies. This will further trend down afternoon storm coverage. Guyer/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Daily rounds of showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will continue over the region with abundant monsoon moisture in place over NM. The greatest focus will stretch from southwest to northeast across the state each day, particularly today through Wednesday. A strong upper level high is expected to build over the region by late in the week with fewer storms possible. However, storm motion will be very slow so heavy rainfall and flash flooding is still possible from any storms. Temperatures will also warm closer to normal than recent weeks. Guyer && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Sct showers and isold storms are moving N/NE across the region late tonight with brief rain, VFR cigs/vsbys, and a few lightning strikes. This activity will dissipate thru 10Z with mid level clouds thru sunrise. SHRA/TS will develop near the higher terrain aft 17Z Monday then move N/NE around 10 to 15 kt. Stronger activity will be focused south of the I-40 corridor where IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible from heavy rain and small hail. Storms will spread into nearby valleys and highlands aft 22Z with sct to nmrs activity thru Monday evening across central and western NM. Guyer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 64 88 62 / 10 10 20 10 Dulce........................... 82 55 82 52 / 40 20 50 20 Cuba............................ 81 57 82 58 / 40 40 40 30 Gallup.......................... 84 58 85 57 / 30 40 30 10 El Morro........................ 76 55 78 55 / 70 60 50 20 Grants.......................... 78 57 82 56 / 70 50 50 20 Quemado......................... 78 55 80 56 / 80 50 60 20 Magdalena....................... 80 60 81 60 / 80 50 50 20 Datil........................... 77 55 79 56 / 80 50 50 20 Reserve......................... 83 56 86 58 / 70 50 40 20 Glenwood........................ 87 62 89 64 / 70 50 30 20 Chama........................... 74 51 76 50 / 60 20 70 30 Los Alamos...................... 79 59 79 60 / 60 40 60 30 Pecos........................... 80 57 81 58 / 40 30 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 52 79 50 / 60 50 70 30 Red River....................... 72 48 73 47 / 70 40 70 40 Angel Fire...................... 73 47 74 47 / 60 40 70 40 Taos............................ 80 55 82 54 / 50 30 60 30 Mora............................ 77 55 79 54 / 50 30 70 30 Espanola........................ 84 61 86 60 / 50 30 40 30 Santa Fe........................ 81 59 82 60 / 40 30 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 59 84 60 / 40 30 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 85 64 85 65 / 40 30 30 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 87 65 87 66 / 40 30 30 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 64 89 66 / 40 30 30 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 88 65 89 66 / 40 30 30 20 Belen........................... 88 64 90 64 / 40 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 89 64 89 65 / 40 30 30 20 Bosque Farms.................... 87 62 89 65 / 40 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 89 65 90 66 / 40 30 30 20 Los Lunas....................... 87 63 89 65 / 40 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 85 63 86 64 / 40 30 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 87 65 88 65 / 40 30 30 20 Socorro......................... 90 66 90 66 / 50 50 40 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 58 80 61 / 40 30 40 30 Tijeras......................... 83 60 84 61 / 40 30 40 30 Edgewood........................ 81 58 82 58 / 50 30 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 83 56 83 58 / 50 30 30 30 Clines Corners.................. 80 57 81 58 / 40 40 40 30 Mountainair..................... 82 59 82 59 / 50 40 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 84 60 83 59 / 50 40 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 87 64 85 64 / 40 40 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 79 58 78 59 / 60 40 50 30 Capulin......................... 84 59 86 58 / 40 30 50 30 Raton........................... 87 57 88 58 / 40 30 50 20 Springer........................ 88 59 89 59 / 40 30 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 83 57 85 57 / 40 20 50 30 Clayton......................... 92 66 94 65 / 20 20 20 30 Roy............................. 86 63 88 61 / 30 20 30 20 Conchas......................... 94 69 95 68 / 20 20 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 89 66 90 66 / 40 20 40 30 Tucumcari....................... 97 71 98 71 / 10 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 92 68 93 68 / 10 20 20 30 Portales........................ 94 69 95 69 / 10 20 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 94 70 96 69 / 20 20 20 30 Roswell......................... 96 71 97 70 / 30 30 40 20 Picacho......................... 87 65 86 65 / 60 40 60 20 Elk............................. 83 62 82 62 / 60 50 60 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the following zones... NMZ206>208-226-241. && $$