225 FXUS64 KBMX 032015 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 3 2022 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022/ High pressure will remain over the southeast states with a boundary to our north in TN. Low and mid level flow will be from the south and southwest allowing for plenty of moisture advection to set up over the state through the short term. Instabilities will be between 2500 and 3000 J/kg through the afternoon today and Monday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected both days. Wind profiles will be weak with very little speed or directional shear...which means any convection will move slowly if at all. PW values will be around max for this time of year around 2.11 inches. Any activity will produce high rain rates and localized flooding is possible in any of the stronger showers or thunderstorms that train over the same areas. The incredibly high low level moisture content will have several impacts. High temperatures today and Monday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. However...because of this moisture...heat indices are going to feel much warmer...up to 10 degrees or more in many places. Today...the heat indices will be in the upper 90s with a few areas in the southern half of the state reaching triple digits. Monday afternoon...heat indices will hover around 100 across much of the state with a few areas approaching 105. Right now heat indices will remain below 105 so will hold off on a Heat Advisory...but it is still going to feel brutally warm for any outdoor activities held on this Independence Day. And to add to the heat index values...there will be very little wind so there won't be any help from the weather to cool off. Be careful with pets...children...and anyone that will be outside for any period of time Monday afternoon and early evening. Tonight...fog development is possible overnight with patchy fog expected across the entire area. The southern half of the state has a greater chance to see dense fog develop...though will leave wording as patchy to account for uncertainty in coverage. Low temperatures will be in the low 70s. 24 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0256 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022/ Really no change in the extended, with just tweaks in shower coverage each day. Overall warming trend to continue with the ridge building over the area. With rising temperatures and moisture remaining the same, look for uncomfortable heat index readings again this next week. 16 Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 350 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022/ Tuesday through Saturday. A 595 to 596 decameter ridge will be oriented along an axis from the ArkLaTex to North Georgia through the period. This will have a warming/subsident effect, but with a tropical air mass in place with PWATs around 2 inches and weak waves rotating southward then westward around the ridge, mainly widely scattered to scattered diurnal convection will be possible across the area. Relatively highest chances will be in the far eastern and southern counties closer to the periphery of the ridge. Fairly warm temperatures aloft (500mb temps around -4 to -5C) will be a limit to storm intensity and may limit coverage of lightning somewhat, but localized flooding will remain possible with sustained storms/mergers given the tropical air mass. By Friday/Saturday, the core of the ridge will retrograde westward towards the Colorado/New Mexico region, with troughing extending southward from eastern Canada to the Carolinas. This will cause a weak front to sink southward across Kentucky towards Tennessee by Saturday. Moisture pooling south of the front and weak height falls may lead to an increase in coverage of diurnal convection by Saturday. Have adjusted high temperatures upward Tuesday through Friday based on the strength of the ridge. There are still some uncertainties regarding the exact placement of the ridge, boundary layer mixing, and timing of convective initiation each day. But overall expect heat indices to increase through the week, with a good chance that portions of the area will need a heat advisory by Thursday at the latest. Those involved in outdoor activities and especially visitors to Central Alabama from areas not used to the heat will need to take extra precautions. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again through the afternoon and evening...weakening after sunset. Any thunderstorm and stronger shower that moves over a TAF site could cause MVFR visibilities at each site. Due to uncertainty in coverage and intensity...have left VCSH and VCTS in each TAF for now. Patchy fog development is possible in the early morning across the southern half of the state...with IFR visibilities and ceilings expected at KTCL...KMGM...and KTOI. Monday...the morning should remain fairly dry with scattered convection developing again in the late morning and early afternoon. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... The moist air mass will remain in place through next week, with scattered showers and storms each afternoon. Due to increased low level moisture and evening rainfall, early morning low clouds and patchy fog are possible each day. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent each afternoon through at least Wednesday. 20 ft winds remain light, less than 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 91 71 93 72 / 30 40 30 40 20 Anniston 72 90 73 91 73 / 30 50 30 40 20 Birmingham 73 91 74 93 74 / 30 50 30 40 20 Tuscaloosa 73 91 74 95 75 / 20 50 20 50 20 Calera 73 90 74 91 75 / 30 50 30 50 20 Auburn 72 89 74 91 73 / 30 60 30 50 20 Montgomery 74 93 75 94 75 / 30 60 30 50 20 Troy 72 91 73 94 73 / 30 70 30 60 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$