686 FXUS63 KLBF 022326 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 626 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances both today and tomorrow and the potential for fog. For today, there is a lot of uncertainty with thunderstorm chances. Although there is instability across the area, the upper level forcing is rather broad and weak. There have been some cu fields developing across the northern Sandhills and north central Nebraska this afternoon, however there has been little vertical ascent. Did lower thunderstorm chances for this afternoon and evening, given the uncertainty, as storms are expected to be fairly isolated in nature. If a thunderstorm were to develop, there is ample low level moisture available, with dewpoints in the 60s and CAPE will be on the lower end but still around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, but still enough where there could be an isolated strong to severe storm. As for fog development Saturday morning, forecast soundings are indicating the potential for some patchy fog. The timeframe will be around 5am to 10am CT. The greatest potential for patchy fog will generally be along and east of HWY 83 and south of HWY 91. For the severe weather potential on Sunday, there will be the potential for more widespread thunderstorms development. A stronger disturbance moves into the High Plains by afternoon becoming the focus for storm development. Low level moisture will be abundant with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There will also be a modest amount of low level shear across much of north central and western Nebraska leading to higher confidence in more organized, widespread development. Out of the chances for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and Sunday afternoon/evening, confidence is much greater in the chance for strong to severe storms on Sunday afternoon/evening. A LLJ will also strengthen later Sunday, with the potential for strong to severe storms to continue into the the late hours on Sunday, early hours of Monday. There is also the potential for an isolated tornado threat as well, which currently thinking should mainly be during early initiation when storms may be more discrete in nature, as the evening progresses storms should congeal into more of a line of storms. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 Upper level ridge continues to expand over the Central Plains, strengthening mid-week and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. This will lead to hot sfc temperatures with highs in the 90s to 100s. Monday there will be the potential need for headlines as heat indices could approach near 100 across north central Nebraska. There will also be the potential for some isolated convection Monday and Tuesday and the potential for more scattered convection on Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 2022 MVFR/IFR/local LIFR flight conditions in stratus and fog should redevelop 09z-12z Sunday morning generally affecting areas east of highway 61 and south of highway 20. VFR should become widespread 15z-17z Sunday morning. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. isolated thunderstorms are possible 21z- 00z Sunday afternoon west of highway 61. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...CDC