265 FXUS64 KTSA 020457 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1157 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 937 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Only change made to the forecast was to remove evening POPs as all convection has dissipated with sunset. Weak sfc boundary extends from NW OK into south central KS and this may continue to focus some storms overnight, a few of which may eventually drift into parts of NE OK near the border. Forecast lows in the upper 60s-mid 70s look reasonable based on current trends. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances remain possible near the Oklahoma Kansas border Saturday morning as the frontal boundary stalls near/just north of the CWA. By the afternoon hours...additional shower and thunderstorm chances become possible across Northwest Arkansas with daytime heating...and also over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as an area of low pressure in East/Southeast Texas lifts northward. The stalled frontal boundary could waffle back and forth a bit Saturday night before finally retreating northward Sunday. At the same time...the area of low pressure/vort max looks to continue to slowly lift north northeast Sunday before loosing definition Sunday night. Thus...a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remain possible near the Kansas border into Sunday with the greater potential for convection during the weekend across Southeast Oklahoma and Western Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Precipitation should taper off and exit by Sunday evening. High temps in the low/mid 90s and lows in the 70s are forecast for the weekend. For next week...the main impact will be the hot and humid conditions as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern Plains and slowly slides westward through the week. To quote Glenn Frey..."The Heat Is On" next week. These conditions will allow for high temperatures to build each day with highs in the mid/upper 90s Monday climbing into the upper 90s to around 103+ or so deg Thursday. Heat headlines will likely be needed across the CWA next week. By end of the work week the CWA looks to be more on the eastern periphery of the dome of high pressure. This may be enough to allow for a slight chance of convection returning to give a bit of relief to the heat...though will just have to wait and see as confidence remains low at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 VFR conditions will prevail thru the period. Some sct to bkn mid cloud across NE OK will transition to sct afternoon cu for all sites on Saturday. Surface winds should remain below 12 kts sustained. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 97 74 95 74 / MMM 0 0 10 FSM 96 74 94 74 / MMM 0 10 10 MLC 94 72 93 73 / MMM 0 10 10 BVO 96 71 93 73 / MMM 10 10 20 FYV 93 67 91 70 / MMM 0 20 10 BYV 93 70 90 71 / MMM 10 30 10 MKO 94 71 93 73 / MMM 0 10 10 MIO 94 71 92 72 / MMM 10 20 20 F10 94 71 94 72 / MMM 0 0 10 HHW 93 71 91 74 / MMM 0 20 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...30