311 FXUS64 KAMA 011722 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022 .AVIATION...18Z TAFs... VFR conditions should largely prevail over the next 24 hours with potential exceptions at DHT/GUY. Thunderstorms may occur there, mainly this evening. Probability is not high enough yet for definite mentions and, with the relatively more favorable time at DHT occurring within the first nine hours, have converted the PROB30 to a lower impact heads-up VCSH. At GUY, have retained the PROB30 and tightened up the favored time period a bit. Should probability increase, amendments may be needed to cover the evolving thunderstorm potential. Ferguson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2022/ SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday Night. Starting early this morning, a cold front has approached Amarillo with northerly winds in its wake. Besides the wind shift, no notable cooler airmass is expected with this front. Continuing throughout the day today, the potential is there for a setup for one or multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The potential is there that the majority of the area also may see no thunderstorms at all if the cap is strong enough. The current forecast shows thunderstorm potential, favoring the OK Panhandle along with the northern and western TX Panhandle. As of the latest 01/00Z model and numerical guidance, the more agressive model data of the NAM/CMC/RAP shows a very broad H500 low pressure centered over SE NM this afternoon. Sloping to the northeast will be an inverted surface trough that extends northeast through the combined Panhandles. The steeper sfc height gradients in the northern Panhandles that could set up may assist in the longevity of storms that do develop. Storm initiation could form along any residual sfc boundaries in the Panhandles as trough shifts sfc winds to the south and southeast this afternoon; along with reaching convective temperatures. However, overall magnitude of wind profile remains weak and should struggle to sustain any updrafts. Most likely setup will be monsoon flow over the Four Corners region will generate perturbation over the southern Rockies where convection will most likely develop in New Mexico and Colorado. Along the aforementioned sfc gradient, with a rather deep mixed profile or onion shaped vertical profile, depending on depth of sfc moisture will develop, this should set the stage in the northern Panhandles for thunderstorms from NM to continue through the Panhandles. Storm mode may developed multi-cells into a propagating MCS, if all the ingredients come together. Most robust kinematics shows SBCAPE achieved this afternoon across the northern and western Panhandles as high as 1500 J/kg with DCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. If storms were to be established and enter the Panhandles from NM/CO, damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with gusts of 60-70 mph possible for any severe thunderstorm. Some stronger cores may also have hail up to quarter size along with training storms that could produce heavy rainfall. Damaging wind gusts though will be the main threat. Timing of stronger storms should start around mid afternoon and continue into the evening hours before storms dissipate after midnight. Other model data solutions of the GFS/ECMWF/HRRR keep the weak and broad H500 anti-cyclonic circulation almost directly over the TX Panhandle. This would result in any H500 convective ridge rollers to skirt the OK Panhandle and bring rain and thunderstorm chances further north into Kansas. Will have to watch observational trends and satellite signatures closely to see where precipitation will develop. High temperatures today will range from the lower 90s in the NW to around 100 in the SE. As H500 ridge begins to build over the Four Corners region tomorrow, diurnally driven thunderstorm chances will also begin to shift northward. Still keeps the far NW Panhandles in play for thunderstorm chances, but will be less of a chance compared to today. High temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today as this stagnant H500 pattern across the southern High Plains continues. Meccariello LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. Little change to the forecast from what was seen 24 hours ago. The long term will be characterized by a sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure across the area with multiple centers embedded according to the latest medium range models. As a result, either the ridge axis or embedded multiple centers will strongly dictate the upper level steering flow for shower and thunderstorm movement as well as the orientation of the moisture plume with respect to our forecast area during this time period. Even though medium range models are in agreement with the overall synoptic picture, determining the steering flow on a day to day basis based on the above will be difficult at best. Therefore, have continued to lean with the NBM pops for Sunday through Thursday. It appears at this time that Sunday night through Tuesday morning may be dry according to the NBM pops. Have cautiously maintained that idea at this time contingent on the steering flow being unfavorable. Nevertheless, the overall trend suggests the northwest sections will have the best chance for showers and storms while the southeast TX Panhandle will have the lowest chance Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Pops will likely be refined as each day draws closer. 02 AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. $$ && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 77/16