915 
FXUS63 KJKL 291123
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
723 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2022

Forecast is on track so far today. Fog showing up in satellite
imagery in the river valleys around eastern Kentucky. This should
quickly lift and dissipate once the sun has been up for little
while. The latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast 
grids to establish new trends. The updated grids have been 
published and sent to NDFD and the remote web farms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2022

We can expect warm and dry conditions, along with mostly sunny
skies and light and variable winds, across eastern Kentucky today,
as a ridge of high continues to exert its influence on area
weather. These conditions will continue overnight, and be
favorable for fog formation in our deeper and more sheltered
valleys, and near bodies of water. The dry weather will last
through Thursday morning, before things begin to change a bit. We
could see a few showers and storms sneak across the TN border and
into areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway 80
corridor Thursday afternoon, as an ill defined frontal boundary
makes a northward push into the lower TN valley. Above normal
daytime temperatures are expected both today and tomorrow, with
tonights lows coming in below normal on average around the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2022

At the beginning of the extended, an upper level low and associated 
trough drapes across central Canada, a ridge axis builds over the 
Southeastern CONUS and western Atlantic and a weak Pacific trough 
digs slowly south and westward. The mid/upper level regime over the 
region is mostly quasi-zonal, as the ridge axis that brought extreme 
heat to the western states has flattened across the Plains and lower 
Midwest. A modest, but persistent low level jet will keep an influx 
of humid air flowing into the region. 

At the surface, high pressure will depart to the east by Thursday 
night as a cold front descends in from the Midwest. The 
southwesterly return flow will boost dew points into the low 70s and 
temperatures into the upper 80s by Friday afternoon. A weak wave 
disturbance flows ahead the frontal boundary Friday afternoon and 
evening, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the 
CWA. High pressure briefly builds back in over the eastern 
TN/southwest VA, briefly clearing out the southern tier of the CWA 
Friday night into Saturday. Fog is possible to form Saturday 
morning, especially in regions that experienced more significant 
rainfall Friday. The cold frontal boundary finally moves Saturday, 
bringing with it another round of afternoon and evening showers and 
thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be strong. 

Unsettled air remains in place through the remainder of the weekend. 
Rain showers will become more spotty by Saturday night through 
midday Sunday, but the return of diurnal convection is possible 
Sunday afternoon and evening. Models slightly diverge in their 
outlook beyond Sunday, with the GFS more eager to filter in hotter 
drier air under a ridge, while the Euro keeps unsettled conditions 
over the region through the early half of next week. The NBM has 
started trending towards a wetter outlook. Confidence is medium at 
this time for this portion of this forecast. 

Temperatures stay within seasonable ranges throughout the period, 
with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s 
to low 70s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2022

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites, as a strong ridge 
of high pressure brings mostly clear skies, light winds, and warm 
and dry weather to eastern Kentucky. Valley fog will persist for a
couple of hours this morning before dissipating, and should not 
affect any of the TAF sites. More valley fog will likely form
again late tonight, but should not bother any of the TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...LUEHRS
AVIATION...AR