170 FXUS63 KOAX 290801 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 301 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Today through Thursday A boundary, which had stalled across the forecast area overnight, will lift north through northeast Nebraska early this morning. Southerly winds will increase behind it's passage, becoming gusty by around 9 AM this morning. Wind speeds will increase to 15 to 25 kts over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Highest winds will be over northeast Nebraska, where gusts could occasionally reach 35-40 kts. While a Wind Advisory was considered, it looks like we will be just shy of criteria. The gusty winds will also be accompanied by low relative humidity, which is a recipe for High Fire Danger. Worst conditions, within our forecast area will be areas north of a Columbus to Wayne line, where RH will dip into the low to mid 20s and winds will be at their peak. Farther to our west, over north-central Nebraska, Critical Fire weather conditions have been noted on the SPC Fire Weather Outlook. One saving grace we do have, in addition to borderline RH values, is the fact that vegetation is fairly green. Therefore, we will hold off on issuing a Red Flag Warning for now. High temperatures will top out in the 90s Wednesday and Thursday, but with the low RH, thankfully it will be a dry heat. A weak shortwave, rippling out of the Rockies, could provide the forcing for a few showers along the NE/SD border. While a few of these could sneak into far northeast Nebraska around midnight Wednesday night, it looks like dry air would keep precipitation from reaching the surface. The majority of Thursday is expected to remain dry before the passage of a cold front brings increasing chances for showers and storms Thursday evening through Thursday night. Modest CAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg, 20-30 kts of shear, and relatively steep lapse rates will contribute to a Marginal Risk of strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening, as noted in the SPC Outlook. Friday and Beyond A more active pattern looks to continue as we approach the holiday weekend. The ECMWF still remains the outlier with more precipitation, but nearly all of the longer range models indicate off and on showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Confidence in timing and placement of precipitation remains fairly low at this time, so will maintain the Slight to Chance POPs from NBM through the 4th of July and into the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain warm through Independence Day, with forecast highs around 90 degrees Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds, quick just a few hours ago are now calm or under 10 mph. They'll pick up out of the south on Wednesday with gusts up to 30 knots at OFK and OMA. LNK will peak near 25 knots. As winds relax a bit on Wednesday evening, wind shear will be an issue. Winds at FL011 or so will be blowing at 40-50 knots from the south-southwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Nicolaisen